The final days of the NBA regular season have arrived. Saturday’s slate of games is a tiny one with just three matchups, but there’s a heater of a contest kicking things off at 3 p.m. ET when the San Antonio Spurs take on the Denver Nuggets. With a couple of top Western Conference playoff contenders facing off as Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic duel, this is easily the game of the day, if not the weekend as a whole.
Here’s a Spurs vs. prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Saturday matinee.
Spurs vs. Nuggets prediction, preview
San Antonio Spurs
One of the most impressive teams this season is the Spurs, who have rattled off 11 consecutive wins and are 59-18 overall at second in the Western Conference. They were supposed to be good, but an +8.4 NETRTG that ranks second in the entire NBA may not have been what most pundits predicted.
This is a true two-way roster that can make plays on both ends. San Antonio averages 119.6 PPG and is fifth in OFFRTG, shooting 48.2% overall (sixth best) and 36.0% from deep. The Spurs average 28.0 assists and have a 2.080 AST/TO ratio that falls fifth overall as well. Clearly, the offense is productive and can beat opponents in a variety of ways by playing clean basketball and working mismatches. The defense is also fantastic, holding opponents to 111.3 PPG with the third-best DEFRTG. Opponents have the third-worst eFG% against the Spurs, who are also second in rebounding with 47.0 a game. They’re also eighth in blocks with 5.4 per outing.
Victor Wembanyama averages a team-best 24.7 points and 11.5 rebounds as the centerpiece, also leading the NBA with 3.1 blocks a game. De’Aaron Fox produces 18.5 points with 6.2 assists, and backcourt mate Stephon Castle pitches in 16.7 points with 7.2 dimes a night. Devin Vassell scores 14.0 PPG, and there are four other players in the double digits — Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie and Harrison Barnes. The depth the Spurs bring is very impressive, and while few players are playoff tested, there’s talent just about everywhere you look.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets hold a 49-28 record on the season and come into this matchup with an excellent seven-game winning streak. Now, they sit fourth in the Western Conference. With a NETRTG of +4.8, they’re seventh in the NBA in the stat.
Offense is the clear name of the game for Denver. This unit averages a league-high 121.4 PPG and sits first in OFFRTG as well thanks to ball movement and elite efficiency. The Nuggets shoot 49.5% from the field and 39.5% from three, both of which are top-two marks in the Association. They’re also now third in free throw rate, first in AST/TO ratio at 2.222, and fifth in assists with 28.8 per game. This offense is nearly unstoppable against most opponents, and while the group brings in a pretty average rebounding total of 43.6 per contest, they are eighth in REB%. Still, the roster isn’t invulnerable. The defense is a major weakness, allowing 116.6 PPG and ranking 21st in DEFRTG. The Nuggets are also last and second-to-last in steals and blocks per game.
Nikola Jokic recently locked in a triple-double average for the season and brings 27.7 points with an NBA-best 13.0 rebounds and 10.8 assists a game. His MVP case is real, though securing the award for the fourth time in his career may prove quite difficult. His co-star, guard Jamal Murray, brings career highs of 25.6 points and 7.1 assists per contest. Aaron Gordon has appeared in just 33 contests but plays an integral role with 16.3 points and 5.8 rebounds. While Peyton Watson (hamstring) has been ruled out, Tim Hardaway Jr. (knee) is probable with 13.7 PPG off the bench. Plus, Cam Johnson and Christian Braun average double-digit points in key roles.
Spurs vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Spurs as -2.5 favorites today on the road with -135 odds on the Moneyline. The Nuggets are listed at +114 odds on the ML with the game total set at 243.5 combined points.
Top pick: Over 243.5 points (-110)
These two teams have squared off twice this season, with a 139-136 win for San Antonio in November and a 136-131 win for Denver in March. Those combined totals come out to 275 and 267 points, so realistically, even the over on this listing of 243.5 isn’t unreasonable. That’s my top selection for this one, and it didn’t take me that long to decide on that either. You have two elite offenses that are both quite efficient with their looks, tons of depth on both sides, and one defense that generally can’t guard a parked car. We’re looking at an offensive environment, and with the Nuggets 47-30 towards the over this season, I like the chances that this game goes over the total as well.
