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Prediction, pick for Guilherme Pat vs. Thomas Petersen at UFC Vegas 115

Prediction, pick for Guilherme Pat vs. Thomas Petersen at UFC Vegas 115

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

Undefeated heavyweight prospect Guilherme Pat makes his second trip to the Octagon Saturday night, taking on Thomas Petersen at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. 

Pat (6–0, 1–0 UFC) scored a unanimous decision win in his UFC debut against Allen Frye Jr. in December. Petersen (10–4, 2–3 UFC) is coming off a vicious third-round knockout loss at the hands of Vitor Petrino in October. 

Petersen enters as a -120 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Pat sits as a +100 underdog. The total is set at 2.5 rounds. 

Pat vs. Petersen Preview

Guilherme Pat

Guilherme Pat made a statement in his UFC debut, coasting to a 30–27 unanimous decision over Allen Frye Jr. in December at this exact venue. The ultra-athletic, 6-foot-6 Brazilian put his striking wizardry on full display — and while he didn’t score a finish, you can’t say he didn’t try:

“Kong” is 265 pounds of pent-up aggression. Four of his six professional wins have come by knockout, including two in the first round. And in a wide-open heavyweight landscape, Pat, 31, will be looking to ride a highlight-reel finish into the division’s top 15.

Thomas Petersen

Following an impressive run in LFA, Thomas Petersen earned his way into MMA’s flagship promotion with a second-round submission of Chandler Cole in August 2023. However, his UFC journey has been a struggle for consistency, as Thomas “The Train” has lost three of his five bouts since making his Octagon debut. 

That brutal stretch was punctuated in October, when the southpaw boxer got sent into another galaxy by Vitor Petrino.

Petersen, 31, flashed serious knockout power during his road to the UFC, posting a 100% finish rate with seven knockouts — including six first-round stoppages. But that finishing ability has yet to transfer to the Octagon, both his wins coming by decision. And despite his best attempts to grapple, he’s gotten knocked out twice in his last three bouts.

Pat vs. Petersen Pick, Best Bet

It’s strange that Pat is an underdog. The Brazilian’s towering size advantage should allow him to control range and neutralize Petersen’s takedown attempts — thus dictating the pace and picking Petersen apart with his clear striking edge. 

Expect Pat to test Petersen’s already compromised chin and leave Saturday night with his hand raised.

Best Bet: Guilherme Pat Moneyline (+100)

Cooper Albers profile photo

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.