All 30 teams in Major League Baseball are on the scoreboard this Saturday, with a doubleheader in Kansas City giving us 16 games in play to start the day. While the weather has forced some postponements and cancellations over the last week, it also sets up some great environments for home runs, and it’s been a fun start to the season with homers flying out of stadiums all across the league. Let’s take a look at the matchups, environments and current form of a few players who are strong options for home run props this Saturday on DraftKings Sportsbook.
By their nature, home run props are long-shot plays, but when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the best power hitters are long-shot plays to homer on any single day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s busy scoreboard, which are all slugging lefties: Freddie Freeman, Jonathan Aranda and Luke Raley.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Freddie Freeman 1+ Home Run (+273)
In their second home game of the season, the Nationals will start Jake Irvin, who gave up a MLB-leading 38 home runs last season in 33 starts. He went 9-13 with a 5.70 ERA and 5.64 FIP, serving up 17 of those homers at home and 26 of his 38 homers to left-handed hitters. The Dodgers hit five homers in their 13-6 win on Friday, and the wind is again forecast to be blowing out briskly for Saturday’s 4:05 p.m. ET start with game-time temps over 85 degrees, setting up very homer-friendly conditions once again. In Washington’s home opener, Freeman hit his second homer of the year.
Freeman hit 24 homers last year and has totaled 127 homers over the last five years with 20+ in each season. He had a strong Spring Training and has carried over his form to the regular season, posting a 48.1% hard-hit rate and 14.8% barrel rate in his seven games. Since Irvin gave up so many homers to lefties last year and conditions will be right again on Saturday, Freeman feels like a strong value option at almost 3:1 coming into the day.
Jonathan Aranda 1+ Home Run (+427)
Aranda has also already hit a pair of homers in his seven games this season, going 7-for-28 (.250) with a double, two homers, and a .370 wOBA. He already has five walks to go with his seven hits and is securely set in the middle of the lineup.
On Saturday night, he’ll be looking for home run No. 3 in chilly conditions in Minneapolis, but the wind will be blowing out to right field at 16 miles per hour. The game could be wet early, but it is expected to clear off as the night goes on. Mick Abel gets the start for the Twins after giving up five runs on eight hits and four walks in his first game of the season. He didn’t give up a homer in that game, but lefties did go 3-for-5 (.600) with a pair of doubles. Last year, lefties hit .284 with seven homers and a .382 wOBA against Abel, and even though the 24-year-old has long-term potential, he doesn’t seem to have an out pitch against lefties.
Luke Raley 1+ Home Run (+483)
Angels righty Jack Kochanowicz struggled last year with lefties as well, and he’ll have a tough task against the Mariners in his second start of the season. He gave up six runs in four innings in his first outing against the Astros, and lefties went 2-for-4 with a double and a walk. Last year, lefties hit .309 with 17 of the 21 homers he allowed with a .393 wOBA. While Cal Raleigh is still looking for his first homer of the year as well, lefty Luke Raley has already hit three blasts.
Raley is hitting .263 with a .440 wOBA and five barrels (38.5% barrel rate). He was limited by an oblique injury last year, but he looks ready to be a big part of the offense this year and brings plenty of power potential.
