The Final Four is set, with a Big East vs. Big Ten showdown in Indianapolis. #2 UConn (33-5, 17-3) needed a Braylon Mullins buzzer-beater to advance past Duke last Sunday. Now, the battle-tested Huskies will look to keep it going against #3 Illinois (28-8, 15-5). The Illini haven’t gone this far since the days of Deron Williams and Luther Head in 2005. Which players will etch their names into college basketball history on Saturday night?
Illinois enters as 1.5-point favorites (-115) over UConn. The total is set at 139.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:09 p.m. ET. Ahead of this evening’s March Madness action, here are my two favorite college basketball props for Saturday’s Huskies vs. Illini showdown.
Alex Karaban 3+ three-pointers made (+155)
Even by blue blood standards, Alex Karaban is a living legend in Storrs. However, the two-time champion delivered one of his worst performances yet on Sunday vs. Duke. The power forward went just 2-of-10 from the field, although he did hit a crucial three-pointer late. Granted, an elite Blue Devils defense tends to do that against almost everyone. Illinois, no slouch on that end of the floor, offers slightly less difficulty for the senior. With that being said, the Illini do possess college basketball’s tallest average height (80.0″).
Gaining points inside the paint could prove difficult for the Huskies. Center Tarris Reed has carried this offense in March, but a different approach might be needed on Saturday. Other than the Elite Eight, Karaban has been fairly effective from deep. In the three NCAA Tournament games prior, he shot 11-of-25 from beyond the arc (44.0%). Illinois has done a solid job at forcing teams into contested shots from long distance. Still, this Illini defense ranks 300th out of 365 schools in opponent three-point attempts per field goals attempted (43.1). If anyone is going to enjoy a bounce-back, it’s UConn’s floor-spacing veteran.
Keaton Wagler 18+ points (-110)
In a sport stocked to the brim with freshman talent, few can compare to Keaton Wagler. The guard is averaging a team-leading 17.9 points to go with 5.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game. In addition, he’s the lead ball handler on the nation’s highest-rated offense per KenPom. At 6’6″, Wagler has the necessary size to take it to the rack. However, the neophyte is also capable of torching teams from deep (40.7% 3PT). In short, we’re talking about one of college basketball’s deadliest players.
In the Elite Eight, Wagler tallied 25 points en route to a 12-point Illini win. He should expect even more intensity from UConn this evening. Make no mistake: the Huskies are a pesky group on the perimeter. However, Illinois’ leading man has gotten the best of elite defenses before. Wagler has scored 18+ against stingy squads such as Iowa, Michigan and Nebraska. In fact, he’s reached that mark in 19 of 36 appearances this season. In a do-or-die matchup, I’ll gladly back the best player on the court.
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