As the Spanish football season nears its conclusion, Atlético Madrid and Barcelona will be at the center of the action. Not only will the two teams face off in the Champions League quarterfinals, they’ll also meet in the league on Saturday, playing three times in the span of 11 days.
The first of those three will begin at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local), and while Los Colchoneros have effectively been eliminated from La Liga contention, they’ll have a chance to play spoiler, as the Blaugrana currently lead Real Madrid by just four points with nine matches to go. The match will take place at the Estadio Metropolitano.
Barcelona is a +120 favorite to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Atleti is +205. There are +280 odds that the teams will split the points.
Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona prediction, pick
All things considered, it’s been a fairly successful season for both clubs. Los Colchoneros surely would’ve preferred to remain in title contention for longer, but they’re in a comfortable position to qualify for next season’s Champions League and are in excellent position to win the Copa del Rey after knocking out the Blaugrana in the semifinals. Barça should also feel confident about its season, even though it won’t be able to defend its Copa del Rey title, as it could win the league for a second straight year and has a doable path to the Champions League final. Both teams are in hot domestic form, with at least 12 points in their last five league games.
Atlético Madrid’s roster has enough talent to prove challenging for the Blaugrana, as they know well from the first leg of the Copa del Rey semifinals. Los Colchoneros don’t have a standout scorer, as only Alexander Sørloth has reached double-digit goals in La Liga, but they have a well-rounded attack, with Julián Álvarez contributing eight goals, Antoine Griezmann scoring six, and eight other players netting at least twice (including Ademola Lookman, a winter arrival from Atalanta). All in all, they rank fourth in expected goals and third in shots on target. Defensively, Atleti has also been solid, allowing the fourth-fewest expected goals and lowest shot-in-box percentage. It has also won its aerial duels at the fourth-highest rate and allowed the fewest goals from set pieces. However, Los Colchoneros have struggled to win their ground duels, haven’t been very good at playing the offsides trap, and they’ve given up at least two goals in eight of their last 11 games. The status of first-choice goalkeeper Jan Oblak, who’s been out since early march with a rib injury, remains an open question.
Oblak’s potential return would provide a huge boost against a Barcelona team that still has one of the best front threes in the world, even with Raphinha absent after suffering a hamstring injury while on international duty with Brazil. This season, four different Blaugrana players have scored 10 or more league goals, with Lamine Yamal leading the way with 14 (21 in all competitions). All in all, Barça has scored 78 league goals — 15 more than any other team — and generated the most expected goals and shots on target. It has continued to be leaky in the back sometimes, giving up merely the ninth-fewest expected goals and the highest shot-in-box percentage, but winning both ground and aerial duels at elite rates helps. The Blaugrana have also been the league’s best team at playing the offsides trap thanks to Hansi Flick’s high press, but they’ve also been somewhat susceptible to fast-breaks as a result. Joan García has been fairly strong in between the sticks, but he allowed two goals to both Sevilla and Newcastle, so he’s not perfect, either.
With Atlético Madrid’s relatively patient offensive style, Barcelona’s press could prove a challenge, especially since Los Colchoneros have been somewhat mistake-prone, but they’ve done a decent job timing runs and can match the Blaugrana for heading ability. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them get one past García. But Barça can play any style, and Marcus Rashford has more than capably filled in for Raphinha before. If Atleti get one, the Blaugrana will get at least two, especially if Oblak doesn’t play.
