We’ve reached the semifinal of the Women’s NCAA Tournament, and it’s all No. 1 seeds still standing. On Friday, two of the most dangerous teams in the country meet with a trip to the national title game on the line. South Carolina faces No. 1 overall seed UConn, with the Huskies entering as 6.5-point favorites and the total set at 136.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Friday’s Final Four matchup, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET.
South Carolina vs. UConn prediction
Tonight is a heavyweight matchup that honestly feels like a National Championship in itself. Both teams have handled their tournament runs with what you could call ease. South Carolina is winning by an average of 40.25 points per game, while UConn is cruising by 32.5. Starting with South Carolina, Dawn Staley continues to run one of the most dominant programs in the country, with the Gamecocks reaching their sixth straight Final Four. They’re coming off a game that looked competitive early but turned into a second-half takeover against TCU, and that performance was a pretty clear example of what makes this team so difficult to deal with. It’s not just one star carrying them, it’s the depth showing up in different ways every night.
Joyce Edwards led the way with 24 points and 12 rebounds, adding three blocks as well, while Agot Makeer brought energy off the bench with 18 points and three steals. Even when TCU kept things close in the first half, South Carolina eventually overwhelmed them on both ends. They shot 67% from three, held TCU to 33% from the field and from deep, and outrebounded them by more than double. Between their size, defensive presence, and the number of players who can step up, they look like a team built to win a national title.
The issue is that they now have to go through an undefeated UConn team.
UConn is a different beast. The Huskies haven’t shown many weaknesses at all, finishing the season as the No. 1 defense and the No. 2 offense in the country. In the Elite Eight, they took down Notre Dame 70-52 in a game that wasn’t necessarily explosive offensively, but still felt controlled because of how strong they were on the defensive end. Sarah Strong continues to make a case as the best player in women’s college basketball, putting up 21 points, seven rebounds, five steals, and three blocks in that game. Blanca Quiñonez added 20 points and eight rebounds off the bench, while Azzi Fudd contributed 13 points. Even without a huge scoring output, UConn forced 14 steals and turned those into 19 points off turnovers, which is where they can really separate from teams.
The biggest question is whether UConn’s pressure and defensive discipline can disrupt South Carolina enough to control the game, or if the Gamecocks’ depth and physicality can wear UConn down over time. If South Carolina is able to stay composed and avoid letting the game speed up too much, they have the pieces to hand UConn its first loss in over 50 games.
South Carolina vs. Uconn pick
Last year, South Carolina’s run was ended by UConn, which adds another layer to this matchup. Even with the Huskies’ offense not fully clicking in their last two games, it’s still hard not to lean chalk. They’re one of the most complete teams in the country on both ends, and even when the scoring dips, their defense keeps them in control. With Sarah Strong playing at this level, it’s easy to see UConn finding a way through again.
Lean: UConn ML
