The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks have both been among the era-defining Eastern Conference teams of the last decade, meeting in the second round twice since 2019. In a typical season, the battle of green teams is among the most hotly-anticipated matchups, especially with playoff seeding on the line.
When the teams meet tonight for the final time this season at 8:10 p.m. ET, the matchup will carry no such intrigue. Though the Celtics look likely to secure the second seed in the East, the Bucks were eliminated from playoff contention last week, ending their postseason streak at nine seasons.
As has been the norm as of late, Milwaukee’s injury list is long. Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) remains out, and Kevin Porter Jr. (knee) and Bobby Portis (wrist) are also sidelined. Giannis’ brother Thanasis (calf) is questionable, as is Gary Trent Jr. (hip). Meanwhile, Nikola Vučević (finger) is the only Boston player on the injured list.
The Celtics are 17.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-1800 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 217.5. The Bucks are +1000 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s contest.
Jayson Tatum Double-Double (+105)
Game by game, Tatum is starting to look more and more like himself after he missed the first 62 games of the season while recovering from the Achilles tear that he suffered in the second round of the 2025 playoffs. In fact, he was named Eastern Conference Player of the Week last week after averaging 25.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game across the course of the week. Though his shot is still inconsistent — his 48.4% effective field goal percentage would be a career-low across a full season — his 9.8 boards per game represent a career-high, as does his 17.1% rebounding percentage.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee has been horrific on defense without Antetokounmpo. Since January 24, the Greek Freak has played just 162 minutes, and the Bucks have posted the league’s fifth-worst defensive rating and the sixth-lowest rebounding percentage in that span. Portis and Porter have also had slightly positive impacts on Milwaukee’s ability to control the glass. It’s also feasible that Tatum gets double-digit assists, and across that span, the Bucks have also allowed the seventh-most assists per game.
Ryan Rollins 3+ Three-Pointers Made (-119)
Rollins, a Most Improved Player candidate, has excelled in his larger role. He wasn’t guaranteed to be Milwaukee’s starting point guard this season, but he’s started 65 of the Bucks’ 76 games, averaging 17.1 points per game and canning 40.7% of his threes. He’s been in particularly hot form as of late, making at least three triples in seven of his last nine games and converting at a 40.9% clip from deep across that span. Rollins has averaged a team-high 77.3 touches per game since Porter’s season-ending injury, the 14th-most of any player averaging at least 28 minutes per game.
Boston has had a strong defense all season, posting the league’s seventh-best defensive rating since Tatum returned from his injury, but as they have in previous seasons, the Celtics have been susceptible to opposing three-point shooters. Boston has done a tremendous job walling off the paint, conceding the fewest shots per game within five feet over the last 14 games, but it has given up the most shots between 25 and 29 feet. Against almost any other player, that’s an excellent tradeoff, but Rollins has made 39.0% of his shots from that range, the 16th-best mark among the 92 players with at least 200 total attempts.
Jaylen Brown Race to 20 Points (+120)
Even since Tatum’s return, the Celtics have still been Brown’s team. He’s still averaged 28.3 points per game across 12 games since Tatum’s return, including at least 29 in each of his past six games. Across that span, he’s out-paced Tatum in usage rate (33.1% to 29.4%), front-court touches (37.5 to 35.9), and points per touch (0.427 to 0.292). He also plays 2.6 more minutes per game in the first half than his co-star, which should help him reach the 20-point threshold before him. Brown’s first-half usage rate is also significantly higher than Rollins’, as is his points per touch. It’s possible that all three players could end up scoring 20 points — indeed, parlaying all of them to get there carries just +206 odds — but Brown should get there first. Taking a “race to” prop bet also prevents against Brown getting pulled early in a blowout.
