Tipping off as part of tonight’s nine-game NBA slate, the Boston Celtics will be taking on the Milwaukee Bucks.
This is the fourth and final matchup between these two Eastern Conference teams, who hold very different outlooks for the remainder of the year. Milwaukee picked up a 116-101 win in the first matchup between these two teams. Boston responded by winning the previous two games by scores of 107-79 and 108-81.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Celtics are 17.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bucks hold +1000 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 217.5 points.
Celtics vs. Bucks preview
The Boston Celtics ignored all thoughts of this being a gap season and have outplayed expectations from start to finish this season. They currently sit in second place in the Eastern Conference with a 51-25 overall record. Boston enters this matchup coming off a victory over the Heat and winning eight of their last 10. On the season, the Celtics have gone 44-32 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 49 of their 76 games played.
Nikola Vucevic is the lone player expected to miss for the Celtics as he recovers from his broken finger. Jaylen Brown elevated his game without Jayson Tatum for most of the season, posting averages of 28.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game on the season. Tatum has started to find his footing across his first 12 games back, posting averages of 21.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Neemias Queta, and Sam Hauser each also play significant roles.
Joe Mazzulla’s group is scoring 114.4 points per game this season, which ranks 21st in the NBA. The Celtics also rank second in offensive rating, 19th in field goal percentage, and ninth in three-point percentage while launching the fourth-most perimeter attempts per game. Defensively, Boston is holding teams to 107.2 points per game, which is the fewest points in the league. They also rank fourth in defensive rating, second in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 17th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Milwaukee Bucks have been eliminated from playoff contention and will begin preparing for some major questions this summer. They hold a 30-46 overall record and have slipped to 11th place in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee is coming off a loss to the Rockets in the previous game, and has dropped five of its last six. On the season, the Bucks have gone 34-42 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 42 of their 76 games.
Giannis Antetokounmpo remains sidelined with a knee injury. Kevin Porter Jr. and Bobby Portis will also miss tonight, while Thanasis Antetokounmpo and Gary Trent Jr. are questionable. Ryan Rollins has been upgraded to probable. Rollins has been a major bright spot this season, posting averages of 17.1 points, 5.6 assists, and 4.6 rebounds. Myles Turner is adding 11.9 points and 5.3 rebounds in his first season with the Bucks, while Kyle Kuzma is posting averages of 13.2 points and 4.6 boards per game. Ousmane Dieng, Andre Jackson Jr., Cormac Ryan, and AJ Green also play important roles.
As a team, the Bucks are scoring 110.6 points per game, which ranks 29th in the NBA. Milwaukee also ranks 25th in offensive rating, 10th in field goal percentage, and second in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 116.7 points per game against the Bucks, which ranks 20th in the league. Doc Rivers’ squad also ranks 26th in defensive rating, 17th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 28th in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed.
Celtics vs. Bucks prediction, pick
The gap in talent between these two teams is even larger than the spread indicates in this matchup. These are two teams trending in opposite directions in the home stretch of the season. Expect this game to slip into full blowout territory and for the Celtics to have a chance to rest some key players in the second half. Most concerning, the Bucks rank 28th in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed and 28th in opponents’ three-point efficiency. Facing a Celtics team that attempts the fourth-most three-point attempts and ranks ninth in three-point percentage, this spells trouble for the Bucks.
However, my best bet for this matchup is for the Bucks team total to fall under 98.5.
The Celtics are one of the best defenses in the NBA. Boston allows the fewest points per game in the league and ranks fourth in defensive rating. They will face off with a Bucks team that is without three of their top four scorers. Milwaukee is averaging just 105.5 points per game across its past 19 games.
Milwaukee was held to 79 and 81 points in their two previous matchups with Boston this year, which mark their two worst scoring outputs of the season. They also have failed to crack 100 points in four of their past eight games. Without Giannis Antetokoumpo on the floor, the limitations on the rest of the roster are put on full display, and this has been increasingly evident of late. Expect the Celtics to score at a high rate and for the Boston defense to have success generating turnovers and limiting good shot attempts. The deeper rotation players have each shown impressive flashes this season, and each would be in line for significant roles if they were on this Milwaukee team. Expect this to be an ugly performance from this Bucks team and for the 98.5 team total to be too ambitious against this strong Celtics’ defense.
