Hinkle Fieldhouse becomes something different this week. And for this Final Four game, it’s a compression chamber for two No. 1 seeds that took very different paths to get here. National Invitation Tournament semifinal night strips everything down to execution, and both New Mexico (26-10) and Tulsa (29-7) arrive with credible claims. One brings control, the other resilience. One has blown through this bracket, the other has survived it. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s NIT college basketball game between the Tulsa Hurricanes and the New Mexico Lobos.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Tulsa vs. New Mexico prediction, preview
New Mexico’s profile in this tournament is overwhelming. The Lobos have scored 107, 86, and 84 in their three NIT games, winning by an average of 21.3 points and trailing for barely six minutes total. That is not just scoring—it is control. They are shooting near 50% across the run, winning the turnover battle cleanly, and pairing that with consistent rebounding edges. Even zooming out, the identity holds: 81.5 points per game, a +10.7 margin, strong assist-to-turnover balance, and a defense that holds opponents near 30% from three. This is a team that dictates how games are played, not one that reacts to them.
New Mexico’s Jake Hall (G) has been a high-volume, high-efficiency scoring engine at 19.0 points per game in this tournament, already carrying a 116-made-three season profile that speaks to real shot gravity. Tomislav Buljan (F) is the axis—21.0 points and double-digit rebounds in the NIT, with the kind of interior control that stabilizes everything else. Uriah Tenette (G) has quietly been just as important, posting a 13:1 assist-to-turnover ratio across the run, turning possessions into something reliable rather than chaotic. Around them, Deyton Albury and Luke Haupt keep the ball moving and the floor spaced. It feels like a team with defined roles, not overlapping ones.
The Golden Hurricane score 85.4 per game on 47% shooting, hit 38.4% from three, and shoot nearly 78% at the line. More importantly, they have proven they can win games in multiple ways this postseason. They survived Stephen F. Austin in overtime behind 41 free-throw attempts and 22 offensive rebounds, controlled UNLV with a +26 rebounding margin, and leaned on shot-making to hold off Wichita State with 12 made threes. That is not one identity—it is a portfolio of them, anchored by David Green (G), Tylen Riley (G), Miles Barnstable (W), and Ade Popoola (W), all capable of carrying scoring loads on a given night.
New Mexico vs. Tulsa pick, best bet
Tulsa has lived in variance. Two overtime games in its last five, multiple one-possession finishes, and a recent 9-1 stretch built on very different scripts: 41 free-throw attempts and 22 offensive rebounds against Stephen F. Austin, a 49-23 rebounding demolition of UNLV, and 12 made threes to survive Wichita State. Even the broader form line carries some instability under the hood—Tulsa is averaging 84.7 points over its last 10, but doing it on 43.4% shooting, which tells you this run has needed extra possessions, foul pressure, and perimeter volume as much as pristine half-court efficiency. That can beat anyone once. It is harder to rely on across 40 minutes against a team that removes volatility. New Mexico’s defensive profile—holding opponents around 30% from three on the season—directly attacks Tulsa’s cleanest scoring path, and the Lobos’ own tournament run has paired that perimeter resistance with real control: 92.3 points per game across the NIT, a 21.3-point average margin, and barely any trailing time at all. Buljan’s presence on the glass matters inside that bigger picture, because if Tulsa does not recreate those offensive-rebound spikes or free-throw gaps, it has to score in a more orderly game than the one it prefers.
The spot reinforces that dynamic. A neutral-floor semifinal tightens rotations and amplifies possession value—every empty trip matters more, every late whistle matters more, every turnover carries extra weight. That plays into New Mexico’s hands because its identity is built on minimizing mistakes and sustaining pressure, not chasing runs. The Lobos have won their three NIT games by 24, 25, and 15, while Tulsa has had to navigate overtime, late-clock stress, and comeback protection to get to Indianapolis. Tulsa’s experience in close games is real, but it also means the Golden Hurricane have needed those environments to win. New Mexico has avoided them altogether, and that is a different kind of edge.
The bet is New Mexico -2.5. This is a play on who can control the shape of the game. New Mexico has shown a repeatable separation engine in this tournament: 107, 86, and 84 points in its three NIT wins, 46.5% shooting over its last 10 games, 8.6 steals per game in that same span, and a bracket run that has led the event in scoring average and scoring margin. Tulsa has multiple paths, but they are conditional—threes, whistles, second-chance spikes—and all of them carry volatility. The way it dies is Tulsa hitting 10-plus threes and winning the free-throw margin enough to keep this inside one possession late, but the broader profile still points to New Mexico owning more of the game’s minutes and turning that into margin.
Final score: New Mexico 82, Tulsa 75.
Best bet: New Mexico -2.5 (-115) vs. Tulsa
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