Just six games remain in the Detroit Pistons’ regular season, and they’re closing in on something that they haven’t done since 2006-07: clinch the top seed in the Eastern Conference. With two more wins or Boston Celtics losses, the Pistons will secure home-court advantage throughout the East playoffs.
However, they received some disappointing injury news this morning when All-NBA point guard Cade Cunningham was ruled out at least another week with his collapsed lung. They’ll still be without him for tonight’s critical 7:10 p.m. ET game against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have made back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances.
In addition, Detroit will be without Isaiah Stewart (calf), with Marcus Sasser (hip) questionable. For Minnesota, Jaden McDaniels (knee) is out, and Anthony Edwards (knee/illness) is questionable.
Even without Cunningham, the Pistons are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-162 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 223.5. The Timberwolves are +136 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s contest.
Anthony Edwards U25.5 Points (-120)
Prior to Monday’s game against the Dallas Mavericks, Edwards had missed six consecutive games with a knee issue, and he was limited in his return, playing just 22 minutes off the bench. Though he was good in those minutes and arguably could’ve played more had Minnesota not blown out the Dallas Mavericks, it wouldn’t be surprising if he was still on a minutes restriction tonight. Plus, 26 points is just a high bar, and Edwards had been inconsistent as a scorer before his injury, scoring 22 or fewer points in four of his first eight games of March.
Plus, Detroit has had an elite defense even without Cunningham despite the point guard’s ranking in the 96th percentile in points saved per 100 possessions. In the eight games since Cunningham went down, the Pistons have still had the league’s fourth-best defensive rating, a 105.8 mark that’s stinger than their mark for the season as a whole. Detroit will probably guard Edwards with Ausar Thompson, who held him to three-for-eight shooting in 28.3 partial possessions last season. Thompson ranks in the 95th percentile in points saved per 100 possessions and ninth in defensive RAPM.
Daniss Jenkins 2+ Steals (+108)
Jenkins came out of nowhere to become one of the Pistons’ most valuable role players this season. He averaged just 3.3 minutes per game in seven appearances in 2024-25 but has started 16 games this season, averaging 9.0 points and 3.6 assists per game as a sixth man. Despite not being a Cunningham-level defender, he’s recorded two steals in five of his starts, and he’s averaging 2.2 steals per 100 possessions overall — 0.1 more than Cunningham. Jenkins has averaged 36.3 minutes per game since Cunningham’s injury, so he should have plenty of possessions to rack up steals.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have just been sloppy with the ball as of late. In between the All-Star break and Edwards’ injury, Minnesota went just 7-5 and allowed opponents to rack up the fifth-most steals per game. For all of his brilliance since coming over from the Chicago Bulls, Ayo Dosunmu has seen his turnovers jump from 1.7 to 2.2 per game despite only playing 1.5 more minutes per contest. Plus, Jenkins mostly guarded Mike Conley the last time these teams played, and Conley has coughed the ball up as a ball-handler at one of the highest rates of his career.
Julius Randle 26+ Points + Rebounds (-119)
Randle has played well as of late, averaging 21.5 points and 5.8 rebounds per game across his last eight games and recording at least 26 P/R four times in that span. Of course, two of those games came with Edwards sidelined, but they’re pretty complementary pieces, as Randle has received more passes from Edwards than he’s slung to him. He should also see some uptick in usage with McDaniels out, as he has scored 11, 24, 25, and 32 points in the four games that McDaniels has missed this season, only scoring 11 against Detroit because he shot just two-for-13.
That wasn’t necessarily a result of great defense, though; seven of Randle’s 13 shots came with the nearest defender at least four feet away, and he went just one-for-seven on such shots, an anomaly given his production this season as a whole. In that game, he was guarded primarily by Tobias Harris, an average defender who ranks in just the 20th percentile in total contests per 100 possessions. In the long run, I’m bullish on Randle’s scoring ceiling against the Pistons because they give up a lot of shooting fouls and Randle is an aggressive driver. Both teams also limit opponents to low shooting percentages, so he should have plenty of rebound opportunities.
