The Atlanta Braves are visiting the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday, with first pitch set for 9:40 p.m. ET/6:40 p.m. PT. Ryne Nelson will take the bump for the D-backs, facing off against Braves righty Reynaldo Lopez at Chase Field. Looking at the odds, lines and Nelson’s strikeouts prop on DraftKings Sportsbook, here is a breakdown of how the right-hander could perform in his second outing of the season.
Ryne Nelson Strikeouts Prop
DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Nelson’s strikeouts thrown line set at 4.5 for Thursdays’ contest against the Braves.
In his season debut against the Los Angeles Dodgers on March 27, Nelson gave up two hits, three walks and four earned runs in 4.2 innings. He struck out four of the 19 batters he faced, lasting 83 pitches. Both of the hits he allowed were home runs – a solo homer to Alex Freeland and a three-run shot to Mookie Betts – in the third inning.
Nelson enjoyed a career year as a part-time starter in 2025, thanks in large part to his success once he joined the rotation full-time in June. On the whole last season, Nelson went 7-3 with a 3.39 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.4 WAR. From June 13 on, however, the righty went 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.055 WHIP. But even across that hotter stretch, Nelson still only averaged 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. And yet, Nelson posted a 3.18 ERA and 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings in five Spring Training starts.
Based on FanGraphs‘ Steamer model, Nelson is projected to go 9-10 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 134 strikeouts across 36 appearances, 27 starts and 157.0 innings in 2026. His 1.5 projected fWAR ranks No. 4 among Arizona starting pitchers, while his projected 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings ranks No. 6 in the rotation.
Ryne Nelson picks, predictions
The Braves are averaging the second-fewest strikeouts per game this season. Luis Severino was able to fan seven Atlanta batters before getting the hook Wednesday, but the previous three starters the Braves faced went for three, zero and three strikeouts, respectively.
Based on his career numbers, his regular season debut and his 2026 projections, Nelson should be expected to record a strikeout in roughly 19% to 21% of plate appearances. To get to five strikeouts, then, Nelson would have to face 25 batters. He only reached that mark twice in 33 appearances last season. Nelson went over 4.5 strikeouts in nine of his 23 starts last year. Taking those personal trends into account, plus a tough matchup strikeout-wise, I’m taking the under for Nelson’s strikeouts on Thursday.
