Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my two top home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday night’s tiny two-game slate: Corbin Carroll and Francisco Alvarez.
Let’s break them down.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Corbin Carroll 1+ Home Run (+503)
I don’t want to overreact too much to a single start in March, but there were some red flags with Reynaldo Lopez last week. Well, there were actually some red flags with Reynaldo Lopez all throughout the spring. After making just one appearance in 2025 due to a shoulder injury, the 32-year-old was fighting his velocity throughout Grapefruit League action, even having outings where his average fastball velocity was dipping below 90 mph. Not ideal! That velocity wasn’t nearly as bad on Saturday versus the Royals, but at 94.5 mph, it was still a career-low, and it translated into only three strikeouts in six innings of work. Add in a 52.9% fly ball rate and you can see why Lopez might get tagged for a few more home runs than usual this coming season. Meanwhile, a hand issue in Spring Training doesn’t appear to have sapped any of Corbin Carroll’s pop, as he already has a pair of long balls in 2026. For his MLB tenure, Carroll also owns a .277 ISO and a .902 OPS when facing a right-handed pitcher at Chase Field. These are the perfect conditions for the former NL Rookie of the Year.
Francisco Alvarez 1+ Home Run (+577)
Several Mets’ players are in the midst of underwhelming starts at the plate — I’m looking at you, Bo Bichette — but that hasn’t been the case with Francisco Alvarez, who is slashing .231/.375/.538 with a .539 expected wOBA through his first 17 plate appearances of 2026. He’ll look to keep the good times rolling this evening against Robbie Ray and the Giants. Now, in general, I’m not looking to attack home run props at Oracle Park. We must acknowledge that tonight’s pick has been slightly influenced by this being just a two-game slate. With that said, Alvarez did absolutely mash the left-handed opponents he saw in 2025. In 66 plate PAs within the split, the backstop managed a .304 ISO and a 164 wRC+. He also hit five of his 11 long balls in 2024 off southpaws. Alvarez is dangerous in this matchup with Ray, who has been hurt by home runs throughout his career. In fact, in Ray’s last four “full” seasons, he’s surrendered at least 30 opponent homers in three of them.
