Auburn vs. Illinois State College Basketball prediction, preview (9:30PM ET on Thursday in Indianapolis, IN)
Illinois State has been putting together a terrific run in the NIT to advance to the Final Four at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Redbirds sprung two sizable upsets to get to this point, taking down Wake Forest and Dayton, both as underdogs of 7.5 points or more. ISU has now won four of its last five outright when priced as the underdog, and is not to be taken lightly by Auburn. That said, the Tigers represent by far the most difficult task the Redbirds have seen this season.
Auburn has been winning but not covering as large favorites in NIT play. While Illinois State has the formula to hang around in this game, I don’t see it pulling a third consecutive upset as a big underdog. The Tigers were one of the last teams left out of the NCAA Tournament field, and check in at 40th in the KenPom rankings. The Redbirds rank 94th on Kenpom, and even with a defensive efficiency ranked 61st, should have trouble getting stops in this game.
Auburn’s offensive efficiency ranks 12th nationally, a big difference compared to Wake Forest (69th) and Dayton (126th). The Tigers’ size and skill also gives them a rebounding advantage over Illinois State, which should provide their elite offense with some extra chances. The guard play by Dayton and Wake was pretty poor in the two matchups against ISU in the NIT, and while we have to give some credit to the Redbirds’ defense, I don’t think that’ll be the case against Auburn. The Tigers’ trio of Tahaad Pettiford, Elyjah Freeman and Kevin Overton will be far more difficult to contain.
Illinois State is going to need some firepower to keep up in this game, and with an offensive efficiency ranked just 147th, I’m not sure it’ll have it. In our CBB Board betting group on DraftKings Sportsbook, I posted played of Oklahoma and Auburn combined in a moneyline parlay (OU won on Wednesday) and Auburn to win the NIT at +110. I’ll be riding both of those plays on Thursday night — you can still bet Auburn to win the NIT, and if it gets the win over ISU you will have a sizable favorite in Sunday’s championship game against New Mexico or Tulsa.
If you’re looking for a pregame wager that’s isolated to this game, I think backing the Tigers on the double result (halftime/fulltime under game lines) is worth a look. Auburn is -140 to lead at halftime and go on to win the game, which is a good price compared to about -170 being offered elsewhere in the market.
