Postseason hopefuls are set to clash this evening in Phoenix. The Braves (4-2) have gotten off to a fast start, led by a dangerous pitching staff. Atlanta has surrendered just 12 runs over its last six contests. As for the Diamondbacks (3-3), a sweep of the Tigers has given this group some confidence. They’ll look to keep the momentum going this weekend against a National League contender.
The Braves are favorites (-122) over the Diamondbacks, with the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Atlanta and Arizona on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, Atlanta has been unhittable on the mound in the early going. That includes Reynaldo Lopez, who tossed six innings of one-run ball last week against the Braves. Injuries limited the right-hander to just one start last season. However, he’s a talented arm when fully healthy. Lopez posted a sparkling 1.99 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 135.2 innings in 2024. While he was a bit lucky that year (2.92 FIP), the veteran is one of the more reliable Braves hurlers. A master of control, don’t expect many base on balls for Arizona in this one.
It’s not just on the mound where Atlanta has impressed. The lineup has been solid, with the potential to get even better. As a unit, the Braves have posted baseball’s eighth-highest OPS (.721) this season. Leading the charge is last season’s NL Rookie of the Year, Drake Baldwin. The talented catcher has already notched three home runs and seven RBIs through six games played. Infielder Mauricio Dubón has also impressed with a .412 batting average. It’s likely just a matter of time until Ronald Acuna Jr. (.150 BA) and Austin Riley (.238 BA) get going.
The Diamondbacks are a bit in limbo; it wouldn’t be shocking to see this group contend or tank this season. On paper, I’m more inclined to believe it’s the former. The pitching staff is fairly dangerous, including tonight’s starter. Ryne Nelson stumbled out of the gate, giving up four runs over 4.2 frames against the Dodgers. Still, he’s coming off of a career year in 2025 (3.39 ERA). To boot, Nelson posted a stellar 2.71 ERA that season when pitching at Chase Field. Over three career meetings with Atlanta, the righty owns a mediocre 4.32 ERA.
Arizona’s offense has been bad to say the least thus far. Just two players that have logged five games, Corbin Carroll and Jordan Lawlar, have a wRC+ above 100. All-Star infielders Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo have struggled to get going. Granted, facing the Dodgers and Tigers tends to do that to opposing batters. Last season, the Diamondbacks averaged 5.07 runs per game at home, fourth-most in baseball. With respect to Lopez, the Snakes have already faced Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Tarik Skubal.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Both teams come into this one coming off of fairly close wins. That means both teams have used up most of their bullpen depth earlier this week. Lopez and Nelson, while capable arms, aren’t always a sure thing when it comes to pitching deep into games. To boot, it’s only a matter of time until big names such as Acuna Jr. and Marte start heating up. Given the talent on both lineups, I’m liking the over tonight.
