The PGA TOUR stampedes to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open at The Oaks Course of TPC San Antonio this week. This is the last stop before the Masters, and it brings a strong field to play a tough course that can be even trickier if the wind gets blustery, as it sometimes does in Texas. Defending champion Brian Harman started fast and held on through the windy weekend last year, and 132 players will tee it up on Thursday. The field is split into 44 groups of three that will tee off from hole No. 1 and hole No. 10 starting at 8:30 a.m. ET. After 22 groups play in the morning, 22 more get the afternoon wave underway at 1:30 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at the wide variety of markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook and pinpoint some of my best bets for Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open.
Texas winds can be variable and gusty, making the course play much more difficult in some conditions. It looks like the morning wave will have a slight advantage, with more wind forecast for the afternoon. Be sure to keep tabs on the forecast before the start of the round, though, to fine-tune your strategy. In this post, I focus mostly on picks I like regardless of shifting wind, but some good opportunities can emerge late if the forecast changes.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open on Thursday, April 2. Let’s tee it up!
Matchup (3 Way) – Round 1: Tony Finau (+105) over Will Zalatoris
Will Zalatoris is in the 8:54 a.m. ET group that is going off tee No. 10, while Tony Finau goes off a few groups after him at 9:18 a.m. ET. Finau is getting plus-money odds to score lower than Zalatoris , which is a great value spot to attack.
Zalatoris has played just three tournaments this season, posting an impressive T-18 at The American Express before missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open and needing to miss a couple of months due to an ankle injury. He returned last week in Houston but missed the cut while struggling with accuracy off the tee. Driving accuracy is one of the most important factors at TPC San Antonio, and Zalatoris will be in for a long day if he struggles again in that area.
Finau hasn’t been right in the mix to win yet this season, but he has been in much better form after a down 2025. He has made the cut in five straight events and six of his last seven, and he has four top-30 finishes in those seven events.
Finau has made the cut in five of his last six trips to TPC San Antonio, highlighted by a T-3 in 2017. Zalatoris is playing this event for the first time, and while I believe in his long-term upside, I like Finau’s chances to post a lower score on Thursday.
Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 Finish End of Round 1 (+196)
Matsuyama is in one of the early featured groups and will tee off at 9:05 a.m. ET playing alongside Tommy Fleetwood and Rickie Fowler. It should be a great group to watch, and Matsuyama has a good chance to get out early before the wind picks up and finish in the top 20 by the end of the day.
Last year, Matsuyama missed the cut at this event, but he finished T-7 in 2024 and T-15 in 2023. The 34-year-old from Japan hasn’t missed a cut in a non-major since this event last year, and he’ll be looking to get out fast to make the weekend this year. He started the year with four straight top-20 finishes but has made the cut but finished just outside the top 20 in each of his last three events. He did finish strong at THE PLAYERS though, with a 67 in the Final Round that gives him momentum coming back to TPC San Antonio.
Over the last three months, Matsuyama ranks third in the field in Total Strokes Gained, seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach, and eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. He’s exactly the kind of accuracy-first shotmaker that typically excels at this course, and the veteran will have a good chance to get out ahead of the wind and end up in the top 20, especially if the late wave has to deal with more wind. At almost 2:1, this is a great value option, even though it comes with some risk.
Stephan Jaeger Over 71.5 (-110)
Jaeger is playing in one of the featured afternoon groups with J.J. Spaun and Russell Henley. They tee off at 2:30 p.m. ET and may have to deal with some of the stronger winds later in the day.
Jaeger is coming off two strong showings with a T-7 at the Valspar and a T-28 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open last week. Jaeger won at Memorial Park Golf Course at the Houston Open in 2024, but he hasn’t had nearly the same success in San Antonio.
In his three events at the Valero, Jaeger has missed the cut three times. He didn’t play last year when it was windy but has gone over this prop in three of his six career rounds at The Oaks Course.
Jaeger’s strength is usually in his short game and his distance off the tee, but at TPC San Antonio, accuracy on approach and accuracy off the tee is the focus. His game isn’t a great fit for this track, and as a result of that and the potentially windy conditions, I expect Jaeger to shoot par or over-par in Round 1, going over this scoring prop.
