After being scratched from his scheduled start on Saturday versus the Phillies, Jacob deGrom is expected to make his 2026 debut this evening in Baltimore, as the Rangers continue their series against the Orioles.
Texas is looking to start the season 4-1, and the club is a -126 road favorite on the moneyline on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Is deGrom at full strength? Can the Ragers stay hot? Let’s preview this matchup and make a couple picks.
Rangers vs. Orioles prediction, preview
While getting scratched from your first start of the season is far from ideal, the real irony lies in how healthy Jacob deGrom was able to be in 2025. Despite making only nine appearances in 2023 and 2024 combined, deGrom took the mound 30 times last season for the Rangers, throwing 172.2 innings. It was the first time since all the way back in 2019 that deGrom was able to exceed even 100 innings. This wasn’t just empty volume, either. The 37-year-old managed to maintain a 2.97 ERA with a 3.36 xERA. Yes, deGrom “only” struck out 27.7% of the batters he faced, but a slight drop in velocity seemed to be a fair trade for availability — and it’s not like a 92nd percentile fastball velocity is anything to scoff at, anyway. The equation here remains the same as it always has: If deGrom’s able to pitch, he’s elite.
Zach Eflin has a similar issue with health, though it’s not as if the right-hander was all that effective when available in 2025. Much like everyone on the Orioles’ roster last year, Eflin had a forgettable campaign in 2025, pitching to a 5.93 ERA and surrendering a staggering 2.27 opponent home runs per nine. Left-handed bats were Eflin’s largest weakness, as the veteran allowed those within the split to slash .316/.339/.649 with a .413 wOBA. Among the 126 pitchers with at least 40 innings thrown to LHBs, that .649 slugging percentage was easily the highest mark in MLB. Woof.
Now, the Rangers’ lefties underwhelmed with the bats throughout 2025, but the team should be better equipped to punish RHPs in 2026. Corey Seager is healthy and is already in possession of a 164 wRC+ in his first 19 plate appearances. Brandon Nimmo is also raking out of the leadoff spot, slashing .353/.421/.529 in his first four games as a member of Texas’ organization. Even Evan Carter is without injury and is boasting a .400 expected wOBA. These are all small samples, but there’s suddenly enough left-handed pop in this lineup to make someone like Eflin sweat.
Rangers vs. Orioles pick, best bet
Best Bet: Corey Seager 2+ Total Bases (-120)
Eflin couldn’t have struggled more with LHBs in 2025 and Seager is about as dangerous as they come. The shortstop is also 5-for-12 (.417) in his career against the Orioles’ RHP with three extra base hits.
Strong Lean: Rangers ML (-126)
Somehow, the Rangers only went 16-14 in deGrom’s starts last season, but I’ll ride with the slight road favorites in a matchup where they have a clear advantage in the pitching department. Baltimore also really hasn’t been swinging the bats well to begin 2026, with an .094 ISO and an 87 wRC+.
