One way or another, a long drought will be broken this afternoon when Kosovo and Turkey face off with a World Cup bid on the line. If they win, the Dardanians will make their first ever appearance, as Kosovo only declared independence in 2008 and was only admitted into UEFA in 2016. Meanwhile, the Crescent-Stars would make their first appearance since 2002, when they came third in South Korea and Japan.
The Dardanians will have ever-critical home-field advantage, as the game will kick off at 2:45 p.m. ET (8:45 p.m. local) at Fadil Vokrri Stadium in Pristina. The winner will join Group D at the World Cup alongside the United States, Paraguay, and Australia.
Even as the visiting side, Turkey is a -115 favorite to win (-225 to advance to the World Cup) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Kosovo is +320 (+175 to advance). There are +270 odds that the tie will require extra time.
Kosovo vs. Turkey prediction, pick
Both teams won by one goal in their respective semifinals, but their games could’ve hardly been more different. The Crescent-Stars dominated Romania on paper, controlling 68% of the possession and uncorking 16 shots, but they only managed to put two on target in a 1-0 affair. The Dardanians, meanwhile, played out an epic 4-3 clash against Slovakia, striking thrice in the first 30 minutes after halftime to open up a 4-2 lead (twice from set pieces) and holding on despite the Falcons’ managing more possession, more total shots, and more shots on target. Turkey probably had the more comfortable group stage, posting multiple lopsided victories, but that matters little now.
Though it was pretty weak during the early phase of qualification, Kosovo’s attack came alive at the right time, as the four goals that it scored against Slovakia marked its most since June 9, 2025 in a friendly against World No. 106 Comoros. Perhaps most encouragingly for the Dardanians, their best player, Vedat Muriqi, didn’t even score, and as La Liga’s second-leading goal scorer behind Kylian Mbappé, his talent shouldn’t be questioned. Even after its explosion in the semifinals, Kosovo is still a below-average attack by shots on target per 90 minutes, but it ranks a solid 17th in goals per shot on target. The Dardanians have also been strong in defense, allowing a below-average number of shots on target per 90 minutes and ranking 15th in interceptions, though they struggled somewhat against the Falcons without captain Amir Rrahmani, who will miss this afternoon’s game as well. Between the sticks, Sassuolo’s Arijanet Muric made five saves against Slovakia and ranks sixth in the Serie A in save percentage this season.
On paper, the Crescent-Stars have more talent, as their squad has a combined market value worth nearly four times as much as Kosovo’s, and they rank 54 places ahead of the Dardanians in the latest FIFA World Rankings. Much of that talent sits in the attack, where Juventus’ Kenan Yıldız and Real Madrid’s Arda Güler are two of the world’s most valuable youngsters. Yıldız leads the team in scoring during qualifying, netting thrice, while both Güler and captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu have each provided four assists. All in all, the attack ranks 21st in shots on target per 90 minutes and fifth in goals per shot on target. Defensively, Turkey hasn’t been as strong, allowing 0.57 more shots on target per 90 minutes than the Dardanians, though it does rank 11th in tackles and second in offsides against. The Crescent-Stars also could have a problem between the sticks: Uğurcan Çakir has saved just 56.5% of his shots in European qualifying, though his strong form in both the Turkish Süper Lig and the Champions League provide some reason for optimism.
Kosovo fans will be excited to see their nation to be just 90 minutes away from the World Cup, creating a hostile atmosphere for Turkey, and it wouldn’t be remotely surprising for the Dardanians to put at least one past Çakir. Ultimately, though, the Crescent-Stars are a bad matchup for one of Europe’s fastest-rising teams, as Kosovo scored two of its goals from set-pieces and Turkey was one of the least foul-prone teams on the continent. The Crescent-Stars were also brilliant at playing the offsides trap, and the Dardanians were caught offsides at an above-average rate. Both teams could score, but Turkey will score more.
