Two teams. Two decades-long FIFA World Cup droughts. But only one spot left. Iraq and Bolivia will meet in Guadalupe to decide who gets to come back to North America for the biggest competition of them all. Who is going to leave the pitch victorious?
Iraq is a slight +160 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a draw available at +200 odds. A Bolivian upset is priced at +180. Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for this contest.
Iraq vs. Bolivia Prediction
It has been 40 long years since Iraq found itself in a World Cup. Since that time, unprecedented tragedy and heartbreak in the country have made many wonder if they’d ever find themselves back here. A win here would culminate an emotional journey that is decades in the making.
In the AFC qualification round, Iraq found themselves in a tough tie against the United Arab Emirates. After tying the first leg 1-1, the two teams were deep into extra time in the second leg, once again on a 1-1 draw. A late penalty brought it down to the very last kick of the game, with Iraqi centerpiece Amir Al-Ammari stepping up on the last kick of the game. It was a moment for the ages.
They’ll face a Bolivian team on an equally impressive run. Bolivia pulled a massive upset over Brazil in the CONMEBOL qualifiers, getting them to the inter-confederation stage. Facing a solid Suriname team, they were down 1-0 late and staring down the possibility of elimination. It was 18-year-old substitute Moises Panaigua who broke through, scoring the equalizer. Bolivia was also on the right side of a penalty decision, with Miguel Terceros knocking home the spot kick to deliver a 2-1 lead that the Bolivians never relinquished.
For the Iraqis, the key is finding balance. They tend to skew young in the starting eleven, especially on the back line; three of their four back-line starters against the UAE were 25 or younger. Same for the midfield, where Al-Ammari is the elder statesman at 28. Who can provide the veteran voice to keep things calm when nerves run high?
Bolivia has the same dynamic at play. Every single skill player on the pitch against Suriname was 28 or younger, with four players coming in at 23 or younger. Will we see a veteran like Juan Godoy, who drew the match-winning penalty, in the lineup? Or will manager Oscar Villegas ride out his talented youngsters? We have so many questions to answer in this match.
Iraq vs. Bolivia Pick
The youth will play a significant role in this game. Mistakes will be made, assignments will be missed, and both sides have the talent to score goals in volume. I expect an end-to-end affair with plenty of goals between two evenly matched teams. My best prediction is that Bolivia’s depth of attacking talent proves them the winners, but I’m not confident enough to pick them as an underdog value; the lines are too tight.
