We’ve got a tense UEFA World Cup playoffs to digest on Tuesday. Only one team, between Italy and Bosnia/Herzegovina, can advance to the Cup. Who is going to net the first goal in this one?
Italy is a -195 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a draw available at +295. Bosnia and Herzegovina is the underdog at +650. Let’s get into a first goalscorer prop bet for this one.
Italy vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina First Goalscorer Pick
First things first, let’s take a look at the top odds for goal scoring in this game:
It’s no surprise to see the Italians dominating the top of the first goal scorer odds. You have to get through nine Italian names before you get to the top Bosnian player in odds, Jovo Lukic. That says a lot about how our oddsmakers rate the odds for Italy to win this one.
It’s also highly dependent on who Italian manager Gennaro Gattuso chooses for the starting eleven. Only two of Moise Kean, Gianluca Scamacca, Giacomo Raspadori, Francesco Esposito, and Mateo Retegui will start in the forward spots. That’s a lot of talented names to pick from, and it makes the value proposition for their forwards difficult to forecast.
The central midfield is much of the same. Who gets the bump out of the lineup between Sandro Tonali, Nicolo Barella, Davide Frattesi, and Manuel Locatelli? All four are legitimate goal scoring threats, but Gattuso will only choose three.
My value here is on the back line. Bosnia and Herzegovina will have to spend a lot of time sitting back, conceding corners and free kicks as they batten down the hatches against a much more talented side. There will be plenty of opportunities for set pieces early in the game, and I expect the Italians to convert to break the deadlock. Let’s take a long shot stab at the big man, Alessandro Bastoni, to get the first goal. With three national team goals to his name in their last three international campaigns, let’s see if he can add a fourth to break the game open.
