The opening days of the 2026 MLB season have been an absolute blast to watch, and as we roll into the second week of action on the diamond, there are plenty of games for fans and bettors alike to choose from.
Last night, the Houston Astros (3-2) kicked off their second series of the new year with a standout victory over the Boston Red Sox (1-3). It was an electric outing as the homestand continued and the Stros are now positioned nicely to go into tonight with the upper hand thanks to All-Star starter Hunter Brown taking the mound on Tuesday. However, the Sox have plenty of talent in the lineup are will only grow more desperate to get back on the right foot in these early stages.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for Red Sox vs. Astros tonight courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Astros prediction, preview
The Sox have dropped three of their first four games, and it’s not for lack of trying. It simply seems the bats may need a little bit more to build a rhythm, especially after tallying just four hits last night and making Lance McCullers Jr. look resurgent on the mound. Boston sits 18th in OPS at .666 through the first few games with a .226 AVG and 0.39 BB/K ratio. Trevor Story leads the team with 20 at-bats but has just a .150 OBP thanks to three hits, and he’s struck out nine times at that. Roman Anthony has also gone down on strikes seven times in 17 ABs, so perhaps a slightly less aggressive approach could help the pair. The bright spot thus far though is Wilyer Abreu, who’s an excellent 8-for-16 with two homers in his chances. The eight runs the Red Sox pitching staff allowed last night were the most of their four games thus far, and the team’s ERA of 3.82 is elevated after allowing the third-most homers in the sport thus far with seven. They’ve been solid enough otherwise.
After dropping their first two games of the campaign, the Astros have now rattled off three consecutive victories powered primarily by their bats. Just last night, they scored eight runs on 13 hits after shelling the Sox for four home runs, two of which came off the bat of Jose Altuve. With a .262/.365/.435 slash line, Houston sits fourth in OPS at .800 and is surely thankful to have the collection hitters that it does. Altuve will get the shine for last night, but Yordan Alvarez has blasted a pair of dingers already (and missed out on a third thanks to the stadium roof) with a 1.222 OPS and looks just like his old power-slugging self, which would be a massive boon for this team. The pitching staff didn’t exactly have a great time in their first series and still holds a 5.20 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP, but they looked significantly better last night. The Astros’ K% of 29.4% is the fourth best in baseball, and we have to mention how McCullers looked like the vintage version of himself with just four hits and one earned run allowed while striking out nine in seven full innings.
The Red Sox are set to start right-hander Brayan Bello tonight. He takes the mound for the first time this season after recording a 1.19 WHIP in Spring Training but logging a 5.65 ERA. In 2025, he pitched to the tune of a 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while striking out 124 batters in 166.2 innings, truly outperforming a 4.48 xERA thanks to an 84th-percentile ground ball rate.
The Astros’ right-handed ace Hunter Brown will get the nod for the home side. He threw 4.2 shutout innings in his Opening Day start with four hits and four walks allowed, striking out nine hitters. Last season, he was among the best pitchers in the sport with a 2.43 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 206 punchouts across 185.1 innings. He brings higher-end fastball velocity but graded out in the 97th percentile in both average exit velo and hard-hit rate allowed.
Red Sox vs. Astros pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the oddsmakers list the Astros as -149 Moneyline favorites with the Red Sox priced at +123 to win outright. The run total sits at 7.5 for this matchup.
Best Bet: Hunter Brown over 6.5 strikeouts (-124)
Brown has become a strikeout machine over the last couple of seasons, fully embracing Terminator status last year with an 85th-percentile K% at 28.3%. Given his pitch mix of a high-speed fastball complemented by an outlier of a curveball plus a little more breaking and offspeed stuff, he can wreak havoc on an opposing lineup. His command wasn’t amazing on Opening Day, but he still struck down nine Angels in total. He went 17/31 on the over on this prop line last season and I like him to do so for the second time on the new year.
Strong Lean: HOU Astros over 3.5 runs (-140)
There’s something to be said about how the Astros responded after a couple of very poor games to start the campaign. They’ve scored 28 runs over the last three matchups with an average of 11 hits per game. The lineup is chock full of professional hitters but has also been very disciplined with a 12.6% BB%. They’re putting plenty of runners on base, and I just don’t think Bello is the guy to hold them back tonight. There’s too much momentum building in Houston at the moment.
