All 30 teams are in action across today’s MLB slate. With first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, the Washington Nationals will face off with the Philadelphia Phillies in an NL East battle. The Nationals are off to a 2-1 start to the season, and the Phillies went 1-2 in their opening series.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Phillies hold +119 odds on the -1.5 run line and hold -175 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nationals hold +144 odds of winning outright, with the run total set at nine runs.
Phillies at Nationals prediction, preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have won 90+ games in three consecutive seasons and remain on the shortlist of World Series contenders this year. They are currently tied for the third-best odds of winning the World Series at +1400 on DraftKings Sportsbook. While there is a growing impatience from the fanbase about not doing more to upgrade, this is a core that is headlined by Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner, which is a situation most organizations would happily trade places to be in. Philadelphia has leaned on an influx of young talent, moved on from Nick Castellanos and invested in the pitching staff in a major way with the hopes that it can get over the hump this year.
Philadelphia opened the season by dropping two of the three games against the Texas Rangers. It won the season opener 5-3, but then lost 5-4 in extra innings and 8-3 in the last game. Taijuan Walker will be making his season debut for the Phillies today, which carries some concern. Walker made 21 starts for the Phillies last year and posted a 4.08 ERA, which is much improved from the 7.10 ERA he logged a season prior. But Walker can get hit hard in a hurry, and the reality is he is a placeholder in this Phillies rotation until Zack Wheeler gets healthy.
The Washington Nationals have not cracked 71 wins in a season since they won the World Series in 2019. They remain in a bit of a rebuild, but they have some intriguing young talents that they will be hoping continue on their proper developmental path. James Wood, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. headline this young core, with none of the position players who have logged an at-bat this season being over 28 years old.
Washington got off to a 2-1 start to the season, winning two of the opening three games against the Chicago Cubs. It won the season opener 10-4, dropped the second game 10-2, and picked up a 6-3 victory yesterday. Foster Griffin is scheduled to get the start today, marking his first MLB appearance since 2022. In his career, Griffin has pitched in just seven games and thrown 8.0 innings. Across these opportunities, he holds a 6.75 ERA with five strikeouts, five walks and seven earned runs allowed.
Phillies at Nationals pick, best bet
My lean would be toward the Nationals riding the momentum and winning outright against a Phillies team that is not playing its best baseball out of the gates this year. The bats have been cold, with the team posting overall slash lines of .186/.292/.278 with a .570 OPS through the first three games. The team has tallied 31 strikeouts to its 18 hits thus far.
However, given the concern with each pitcher, I am backing the run total to go over nine in this game. Taijuan Walker made two starts against the Nationals last year and allowed five runs in 11.2 innings pitched. He also gave up three or more runs in 10 of his 21 starts. The Phillies changed plenty of the bullpen personnel and expressed optimism about the unit coming into the year. But the bullpen has given up six earned runs in three games, escaping a few jams in the process.
On the other side, there is little sample size of what Foster Griffin can bring to the table at the MLB level, and the underlying metrics carry concern. While the bats have been cold thus far, there is plenty of talent on this Phillies roster that will break out at some point. Their bullpen has also given up six earned runs through their first three games.
Through their opening three matchups, the run line in Nationals games has finished at 14, 12 and nine. Through the first three games the Phillies played, the game total has finished at eight, nine and 11. It is a beautiful day in Philadelphia with temperatures expected around 67 degrees around first pitch, and the winds are quiet. Count on both sides taking advantage of their vulnerable pitching matchups and for this run total to be too low based on the context of this matchup. There is a youthful spunk to this Nationals team, and the Phillies have several bats that can change the game’s outlook with one swing. Expect both teams to do some damage and for nine runs to be an extremely manageable line to reach.
Best bet: Phillies at Nationals o9.0 total runs (-118)
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