And then there were eight.
After an electric third round of NCAAW Tournament action, we’ve arrived at an Elite Eight featuring all No. 1 seeds still standing, including the undefeated UConn Huskies. On Monday, #3 TCU takes on #1 South Carolina with the Gamecocks entering as 14.5-point favorites and a total set at 133.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Monday’s Elite Eight matchup, tipping off at 9:00 p.m. ET.
South Carolina vs. TCU prediction
The Gamecocks are no stranger to the Elite Eight, or Final Four, or winning the NCAA Tournament, for that matter. The Horned Frogs, however, are eying their first trip to the semifinal in program history. But TCU didn’t get here by accident. In the Sweet 16, they turned a tight game against Virginia into a 79-69 win behind a huge showing from Marta Suarez and Olivia Miles, who combined for 61 points. Suarez put up a 33-point, 10-rebound double-double and knocked down four threes while Miles was nearly flawless, shooting 78% from the field and adding 10 boards.
What’s been especially impressive is how TCU creates separation after halftime. They opened the third quarter on a 17-4 run in that Sweet 16 matchup, flipping the momentum and taking control when it mattered most. They’re battle-tested, but they’ll need another big performance from their stars to keep up with one of the best offenses in the country.
The Gamecocks are winning their tournament games by an average of 45 points, most recently taking down Oklahoma 94-68. Ta’Niya Latson led the charge with 28 points on an incredibly efficient night — 4-for-4 from three and perfect from the free throw line — while Raven Johnson added 18 and 6’6” Madina Okot pulled down 12 rebounds. As a team, South Carolina shot 71% from deep, had four players in double figures, and forced 15 turnovers, turning those into 21 points.
And that’s the thing with this team: it’s not just one player. Joyce Edwards continues to be a true two-way presence, averaging 19.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, and making an impact defensively as well. Add in their size, depth, and ability to score at all three levels, and it’s a tough matchup across the board.
If TCU wants to keep this close, it likely comes down to Suarez and Miles replicating that Sweet 16 performance — because against a team like South Carolina, there’s not much room for anything less..
South Carolina vs. TCU pick
About 85% of the bets are backing South Carolina, with just 15% siding with the underdog Horned Frogs. TCU has been impressive, especially with the way Suarez and Miles took over against Virginia and how this team ramps things up in the second half. But this is a different level of opponent. South Carolina brings elite play on both ends, plus the experience that shows in games like this. I’m leaning toward the Gamecocks to take care of business and move on to the Final Four.
Lean: South Carolina ML
