On this 30th day of March, all 30 MLB teams will take the field for a full scoreboard of action. Fifteen new series get underway on this first Monday of the season, as teams start their second series of the season after an exciting opening weekend in Major League Baseball. As the first season of the week rolls on, bettors have many options to consider when building a card for this massive slate, and few wagers are more exciting than the No Run First Inning (NRFI) props.
NRFI prop bets are extremely simple but can also be seriously difficult. Six outs without any scoring is all that is needed to cash in, but it’s hard to find a spot you can be confident will stay scoreless. This style of prop is quick-hitting, easy to track, and supremely straightforward. Still, most days it’s easier said than done. Finding the right pitchers and the best value is crucial, so be sure to consider all the factors as you assemble your NRFI picks.
Be sure to check out the new NRFI Trends Tracker on DK Network as you make your selections this Monday. Taking a look at the options, here are my top three NRFI bets for Monday on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rangers at Orioles NRFI (+105)
The Rangers and Orioles each took two of three games in their opening series, with the Rangers getting back-to-back wins over the weekend in Philly, and the O’s taking two of three from the Twins. The two AL teams will clash at Oriole Park at Camden Yards to start this week as Chris Bassitt makes his debut for the home team against Jack Leiter of the Rangers.
Bassitt did not allow a run in 24 of his 31 starts last year (77.4%), while Leiter did not allow a run in 21 of his 29 starts (72.4%). The Rangers had the fourth-best NRFI hit rate last season at 55.6%, and the Orioles have hit NRFI in each of their first three games to open the season.
Leiter had a promising spring training with a 3.38 ERA and 18 strikeouts, including four shutout innings with six strikeouts against the Royals in his most recent outing. Bassitt allowed just four runs in 16 1/3 innings for the Orioles, and he held the Nationals scoreless for two innings in his last appearance. Both of these starters have been solid, so getting this at plus-money odds feels like great value.
Athletics at Braves NRFI (+100)
Another NRFI at plus-money that brings great value on Monday night comes from this matchup in Atlanta. The A’s were swept by the Blue Jays to start the season, while the Braves went 2-1 against the Royals. Each team hit NRFI in two of their first three games to start the season.
The Braves give the ball to Bryce Elder, who has not allowed a run in 53 of his 78 (67.9%) career starts, while Jacob Lopez gets the call for the A’s. Lopez was an NRFI hero last year, not allowing a run in 14 of his 17 (82.4%) starts. The A’s were a little below league average for NRFI last year, but that number is skewed by their offense-friendly home park. On the road, they had the fourth-highest NRFI rate in the majors.
The Braves are always a higher-risk play for NRFI, especially with Ronald Acuna Jr. hitting so many leadoff homers, but I think Lopez will be able to keep them off the board after Elder gets through his half of the first without giving up a run to the A’s, whose offense has come out of the gate a little slowly.
Red Sox at Astros NRFI (-115)
The Red Sox lost two of three games in Cincinnati to start the season, while the Astros rallied with back-to-back wins to earn a series split with the visiting Angels. Each team had just one game in their opening series with a run in the first inning.
The Sox will give the ball to new acquisition Ranger Suarez to start their second series of the season, and Suarez allowed a run in the first inning of only three of his 26 starts last season, with an impressive 88.5% NRFI rate. On the other side, Lance McCullers Jr. allowed a run in five of his 13 starts with a below-league average 61.5% NRFI rate. However, in his career, McCullers has a 75.7% NRFI rate that puts him above league average.
McCullers gave up three runs in his eight spring training innings but was very sharp against the team’s Triple-A affiliate in a final tune-up. While he may not go extremely deep into the game, he has a good chance to get through the first and get the ball to Suarez for a scoreless start to his Sox season.
