And then there were eight.
After an electric third round of NCAAW Tournament action, we’ve arrived at an Elite Eight featuring all No. 1 seeds still standing, including the undefeated UConn Huskies. On Monday, #2 Michigan takes on #1 Texas with the Longhorns entering as 9.5-point favorites and a total set at 139.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Monday’s Elite Eight matchup, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Michigan vs. Texas prediction
We’ve got a real one tonight. Michigan is chasing its first-ever Final Four, but standing in the way is a Texas team that hasn’t just been winning, it’s been steamrolling. The Longhorns have handled their NCAA Tournament opponents by an average margin of 35 points; however, Michigan has already shown it can survive it. After going ice-cold to open the Sweet 16 — no field goals for the first six minutes against Louisville — the Wolverines didn’t fold. A 17-0 run in the third quarter completely rewrote the script, and from there, they never gave the lead back. Olivia Olson led the charge with 19 points, five boards, and two steals, while Syla Swords added 16 points and four rebounds. But the real story? Michigan’s identity is built on defense.
They held Louisville to just 35% shooting and 21% from three, forcing nine steals and turning the game into chaos. Coach Kim Barnes Arico said their “confidence exploded” as they became “really disruptive on the defensive end,” and that tracks. Full-court pressure, forced turnovers, rushed shots — that’s their formula, and they’re about to test it against one of the most impressive offenses left in the field.
Texas comes in as the No. 6 offense in the country and has looked the part all tournament long, beating Missouri State 87-45 in the first round, Oregon 100-58 in the second, and Kentucky 76-54 in the third. Junior star Madison Booker has been unstoppable, averaging 23.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per game in the tournament, including a 40-piece against Oregon. She’s doing everything, everywhere, all at once. And it’s not just her: Jordan Lee dropped 18 points on 61% shooting in the Sweet 16, a reminder that this Texas team doesn’t rely on one option.
The one crack? Free throws. Texas shot just 33% from the line last round, a sharp dip from its 72% season average. In a tighter game, and this should be tighter, that’s the kind of detail that can swing everything.
So here’s the setup: Michigan’s suffocating, chaos-driven defense versus a Texas offense that hasn’t felt pressure yet…. something has to give.
Michigan vs. Texas pick
About 70% of the bets are backing Texas to win, with just 21% siding with the underdog Wolverines. Michigan has scoring options in Swords and Olson, but they can’t afford another slow start like we saw in the Sweet 16. I’m leaning toward Madison Booker and the Longhorns to keep the pace in their favor and play their way into the Final Four.
Lean: Texas ML
