With just two weeks left in the NBA season, the MVP race is coming down to the wire. Once thought to be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s to lose, late charges by Luka Dončić and Victor Wembanyama have thrown the race into flux. Gilgeous-Alexander is now a -275 favorite, with Wembanyama not far behind at +220. Dončić (+2000) is the only other player with a semi-realistic shot of claiming the award.
Both Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama will take the floor tonight, when Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder host the Detroit Pistons on the second night of a back-to-back against Eastern Conference contenders and Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs welcome the Chicago Bulls. With both players’ games aired on national television, it could be a major opportunity for each to present his MVP bona fides.
Dončić would be playing too, but he’s been suspended after picking up his 16th technical foul of the season. His Los Angeles Lakers will be somewhat shorthanded when they face the Washington Wizards.
With the MVP race taking center stage in national media, I’m sticking with Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama for my three favorite prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook, and with Dončić sidelined, I’ll add the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Donovan Mitchell, the other player with the shortest MVP odds (+70000) who’s unlikely to have an injury designation.
Top NBA prop bet picks
Victor Wembanyama 5+ Blocks (+257)
I could have played it safer and chosen Wembanyama to finish with four or more rejections (+117), but 5+ was too friendly to pass up. He’s swatted five or more shots in three of his last four games and has nine five-plus-block games since the start of February, a span in which the Spurs are 24-1 in the games he’s played. He’s likely to continue playing increased minutes — even in lopsided games — given the state of the MVP race, which could give him more opportunities to record blocks. Ramping up his minutes for the postseason is also a priority.
The Bulls are an ideal opponent for Wembanyama to rack up blocks. They’ve been one of the league’s worst teams since February 1, but despite that, they love getting downhill, attempting the third-most shots per game within the restricted area across that span. As a result, Chicago has been blocked more times per game than any other team since the start of February, slightly ahead of the Detroit Pistons (whom Wembanyama blocked 11 times across two games earlier in the hot stretch). The first time he faced the Bulls, on November 10, he had a 38-point, 12-rebound, five-block masterpiece.
Donovan Mitchell 30+ Points (+129)
Admittedly, Mitchell has had a pretty tough go of it since the All-Star break, averaging just 24.0 points per game on 30.5% shooting from beyond the arc over his last 14 games and crossing the 30-point threshold only thrice. But prior to a six-point stinker on Friday against the Miami Heat, he’d started to turn it around, scoring 27, 42, and 28 points in a three-game stretch. Given the heavy offensive load that he has to bear and his physical play-style, he has a tendency to slow down later in the season, but he’ll be on two nights’ rest, a split in which he has averaged 33.4 points per game across seven games this season.
Perhaps all Mitchell needs to get his offense back on track is a game against his former team, the Utah Jazz, who have had the league’s worst defense this season and play at its second-fastest pace. In fact, since shutting down their best player, Lauri Markkanen (acquired in the trade that sent Mitchell to Cleveland), the Jazz have given up an atrocious 123.9 points per game, and they’ve remained capable enough offensively to keep many games competitive. Mitchell has only played two games in Utah as a visitor, but in his return in January 2023, he had 46 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 40+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-121)
Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t have the greatest game last night against the New York Knicks, but he still finished with 30 points, three rebounds, and four assists (37 P/R/A). All in all, he’s had at least 40 P/R/A five times in his last 10 games, including four times within the span of seven contests, and like Wembanyama, his minutes should remain high as Oklahoma City chases the No. 1 seed and he chases the MVP award. Plus, with the Thunder on the second night of the back-to-back, it’s likely that other contributors (especially Jalen Williams) will rest.
Even without Cade Cunningham, the Pistons’ defense has remained strong. Over the last six games, Detroit has conceded the fourth-fewest points, ninth-fewest rebounds, and seventh-fewest assists per game. However, the Pistons will be without Jalen Duren (knee) and Tobias Harris (hip) in addition to Cunningham, as well as (possibly) Ausar Thompson (ankle). Duren isn’t a good individual defender, but opponents have attacked the rim at a rate 2.2 percentage points less frequent with him on the floor than off, and Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the league’s best finishers.
