There are always a few underdogs on a full MLB board that are worth a longer look—not because they’re the better team on paper, but because the matchup is tighter than the price suggests. Tonight’s card has a couple of those spots. The numbers point to a few dogs with real offensive paths, manageable pitching matchups, and enough lineup pressure to keep these games from playing like the moneylines imply. Below are my favorite MLB moneyline underdogs for baseball bettors everywhere, with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Today’s best MLB underdog ML plays
Twins ML (+141) over Royals
Through three games, the Twins have opened at .219/.319/.354 with 11 runs, 21 hits, 13 walks, and 31 strikeouts, which comes out to 3.7 runs and 7.0 hits per game. That is not an explosive offensive start, but Kansas City has been even quieter at .179/.255/.263 with 6 runs, 17 hits, 9 walks, and 24 strikeouts in three games, or 2.0 runs and 5.7 hits per game. This is not a spot where Minnesota needs to look dominant at the plate; it just needs to be a little better than a Royals offense that has created even less so far.
The pitching backdrop also makes this a tighter game than the number suggests. Minnesota’s staff sits at a 3.96 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, while Kansas City is at 4.62 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, so there is no huge team-pitching gap pushing this price higher. MLB’s preview has this as Simeon Woods Richardson against Kris Bubic, and that leaves Minnesota in a live enough spot if the Twins can simply create a little more traffic than the Royals have managed through the opening weekend. The underdog argument here is not power or lineup ceiling; it is that both offenses have been muted, and Kansas City has been worse.
Cardinals ML (+129) over Mets
Through three games, the Cardinals are hitting .292/.322/.491 with 22 runs, 31 hits, 6 walks, and 16 strikeouts, which translates to 7.3 runs and 10.3 hits per game. The Mets have been productive too at .245/.349/.387 with 18 runs, 26 hits, 16 walks, and 34 strikeouts, or 6.0 runs and 8.7 hits per game, but the Cardinals have been the hotter offense and the cleaner contact team to this point.
The support for St. Louis is much more about the matchup with Clay Holmes than about any broad team-pitching edge. The Cardinals’ staff has been rough early at a 7.07 ERA and 1.93 WHIP, while the Mets are sitting at 3.00 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, so this is not a play built on St. Louis having the steadier arms. The sharper angle is that the current Cardinals roster has seen Holmes extensively and owns 499 career plate appearances against him with a .322 batting average, 18.2% strikeout rate, and 9.3% walk rate. That is the real underdog case: St. Louis is swinging the bat well right now, and this specific matchup history against Holmes gives the Cardinals a cleaner path than the price implies.
White Sox ML (+119) over Marlins
Chicago is not a clean volume offense through the first three games, but there is still a matchup-specific path at this price. The White Sox have opened the season hitting .206 with a .306 OBP and a .423 slug, scoring 10 runs with 20 hits, 14 walks, and 43 strikeouts in three games.
That path runs through Chris Paddack. The current White Sox roster has seen him well: in 41 plate appearances, Chicago hitters own a .278 average, .384 wOBA, .302 xBA, .554 xSLG, and .403 xwOBA against Paddack, with a 12.2% strikeout rate and 12.2% walk rate.
Miami has been the better early offense, opening at .280/.355/.419 with 10 runs, 26 hits, eight walks, and 19 strikeouts in three games, so Chicago is not winning this ticket by simply being the better lineup on paper. The White Sox need the specific Paddack matchup to matter, then hand the game to a staff that has struggled early. Chicago’s pitchers are carrying a 10.13 ERA and 2.38 WHIP, while Miami’s staff sits at 2.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, so this is a price play on lineup-specific damage, not a broad team edge.
Longshot underdog parlay
If you’re fancying a parlay, here’s how I’d bottom line the above: Minnesota has opened at .219/.319/.354 with 21 hits and 11 runs in three games, while Kansas City is at .179/.255/.263 with 17 hits and 6 runs, which keeps the gap tighter than the number suggests. St. Louis has been the hottest offense of the group at .292/.322/.491 with 31 hits and 22 runs in 3 games, and the current Cardinals roster owns a .322 average against Clay Holmes. Chicago is the thinnest case overall, but the current White Sox roster has posted a .403 xwOBA against Chris Paddack.
Best MLB Underdog Parlay today: Twins + Cardinals + White Sox all to win (+1098)
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