Play the music! The 2026 NCAA Tournament continues this weekend with the Elite Eight in full swing. The March Madness field has thinned to just 16 total teams, so the pressure cooker of this environment is cooking on high with the stakes only increasing with each round.
The No. 1 Michigan Wolverines were supposed to make it this far as one of the top teams in the nation. The No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers have faced a more difficult path in the process, with the biggest test of the tournament on deck in this one. Is there an upset brewing with a shot at the Final Four on the line?
Prepare for Sunday’s game with a Tennessee vs. Michigan prediction, pick and more on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2:15 p.m. ET opening tip.
Tennessee vs. Michigan prediction, preview
Tennessee Volunteers
These Vols hold a 25-11 record on the campaign after downing No. 11 Miami (OH), No. 3 Virginia and No. 2 Iowa State en route to this matchup. The toughest test of those was the matchup against the Cavaliers, who the Volunteers beat 79-72 — the other two contests were decided by double digits. After going 8-10 against Quad 1 teams so far, it’s fair to ask whether this is merely a hot streak or a sign of what could be for Tennessee.
The program ranks 11th in NETRTG at +27.84 per KenPom, and it’s played the eighth-hardest schedule by the same metrics. The Volunteers lean on their defense, producing the 11th-best DRTG and holding opponents to 68.9 PPG, 47th in the nation. The 47.4% eFG% allowed to opponents also ranks 28th in the country while they dominate the boards with 42.5 rebounds per game, third most. They don’t produce a ton of turnovers, but an NCAA-leading 44.4% OREB% means extra possessions for the Vols’ offense. They score 79.3 PPG which isn’t the most impressive mark, but they are 31st in ORTG. Tennessee shoots 46.6% from the field and 34.0% from deep, also dishing 17.2 assists a night with a 1.446 AST/TO ratio.
Ja’Kobi Gillespie is the star of the show for this roster with 18.3 points and 5.5 assists per game to go along with 2.0 steals, but he has an excellent running mate, too. Nate Ament averages 17.0 points and 6.4 rebounds as the other primary option. J.P Estrella brings 10.1 points with 5.3 rebounds, with Felix Okpara and Bishop Boswell also playing heavy minutes in the rotation.
Michigan Wolverines
As a No. 1 seed in this March Madness field, Michigan has earned the right to be a favorite here. The Wolverines are 34-3 overall and won all three of their games in the tournament thus far by at least 13 points — No. 16 Howard and No. 9 Saint Louis posed no issue, though No. 4 Alabama gave them a run for their money in the first half. At 19-3 against Quad 1 teams, there’s no questioning the dominance of this unit.
Michigan sits atop the KenPom rankings with an NCAA-best NETRTG of +38.11 and top-five marks in both ORTG (first) and DRTG (fifth). The Wolverines have also played the third-toughest schedule in the sport this season. They score the fourth-most PPG with 87.5 and boast elite shooting percentages of a 51.1% FG% (third) and a 36.9% 3P% (29th). They also average 18.8 assists a game, fourth most, with a 1.606 AST/TO ratio. Michigan is also great on the glass with 40.1 boards a game, 12th in the nation, and there are numerous reasons to feel encouraged by the defense. The program gives up 69.8 PPG but allows the third-lowest eFG% at 45.2%, also blocking the second-most shots with 6.1 per game.
Where the Volunteers lean on on their stars, the Wolverines have a handful of contributors who make this a true team effort. Yaxel Lendeborg averages 14.9 points and 7.0 rebounds with 3.3 dimes and 2.4 combined stocks. Morez Johnson Jr. brings 13.2 points and 7.3 rebounds a night, and Aday Mara posts 11.9 points with 6.8 boards. Elliot Cadeau produces 10.3 points and 5.7 assists, and fellow guard Trey McKenney is close to the double digits in scoring with 9.7 PPG.
Tennessee vs. Michigan pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Michigan as a 7.5-point favorite in this one with -340 odds on the Moneyline. Tennessee enters as a ML underdog at +270 odds with the game total set at 146.5 combined points.
This may just shape up as one of the best games of the entire tournament. Both teams are great on defense and excel on the glass, and there’s size on both sides to match up well against each other. This will truly be a fascinating battle. Here’s the deal, though. The Volunteers have fewer players who can hypothetically step up on the biggest stage to shoulder some of the load if Michigan’s defensive coverages bother either of Gillespie or Ament. Conversely, it’s easier to trust the supporting cast the Wolverines deploy along with their superior offense. This should be a close contest and I do firmly believe that Tennessee can hang around to keep this within the 7.5-point spread, especially after the grit the Vols have shown thus far. But I’m also confident that Michigan will come out victorious to advance to the Final Four.
Best Bet: Tennessee +7.5 (-108)
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