And then there were 16.
After an electric second round of NCAAW Tournament action, we’ve arrived at a Sweet 16 featuring all No. 1 seeds still standing and No. 10 Virginia as the lone double-digit seed. On Saturday, the last Cinderella standing #3 TCU face off in the Women’s Sweet 16, with the Horned Frogs entering as 17.5-point favorites and a total set at 153.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Saturday’s Sweet 16 matchup, tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Virginia vs. TCU prediction
No matter what happens tonight, Virginia has already made history. The Cavaliers are the first team to come out of the First Four and make it to the Sweet 16, and the first double-digit seed to dance this long since two No. 10 seeds — Creighton and South Dakota — reached this round in 2022. How Virginia got here, though, is just as electric. In a wild Round of 32 matchup, No. 10 Virginia upset No. 2 Iowa 83-75 in double overtime, fueled by relentless effort and strong guard play. Kymora Johnson took over in the extra periods, scoring 14 points in overtime alone to finish with 28. Paris Clark added 20 points and seven rebounds, while Sa’Myah Smith led the team on the glass with 10 boards.
Shooting 33% from three doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but Virginia capitalized where it mattered most, turning 16 Iowa turnovers into 27 points. Plus, if there’s one thing we’ve learned, it’s that this team isn’t afraid of a fight. Every game this March has been a grind for the Cavaliers, from a 57-55 First Four win over Arizona State to an overtime battle against No. 7 seed Georgia. This is a team that’s comfortable in chaos. If they want to pull off another upset, it’ll come down to guard play and limiting mistakes.
Speaking of overtime wins, TCU enters this matchup fresh off a 62-59 overtime victory over No. 6 Washington. Olivia Miles led the way with an 18-point, 10-rebound double-double to go along with eight assists, though it wasn’t her most efficient night. She went 9-of-24 from the field and missed all five of her three-point attempts, despite shooting 34.5% from deep on the season. However, it’s not just Miles carrying the load. TCU has real scoring depth, with three players averaging double figures on the season — Miles (19.4 PPG), Marta Suarez (16.8 PPG) and Donovyn Hunter (10.6 PPG) — giving this offense multiple ways to attack.
The Horned Frogs also showed their resilience last game, trailing for much of it before closing on a 7-0 run in overtime. Clara Silva and Taylor Bigby were key contributors alongside Miles, combining for 31 points and 12 rebounds. TCU dominated the paint as well, finishing with 42 points inside and matching that number on the glass with 42 rebounds. The concern, though, is at the line, where they shot under 70% — something that has to improve in a tight matchup like this.
Against a scrappy Virginia team that refuses to go away, Miles’ shot-making and playmaking will be everything. She didn’t average 6.6 assists per game for nothing.
Virginia vs. TCU pick
89% of bets on DraftKings Sportsbook are backing TCU, while just 11% are on the underdogs. Virginia has already written a record-setting story, but TCU’s playmaking and scoring depth give the Horned Frogs the edge.
Lean: TCU ML
