And then there were 16.
After an electric second round of NCAAW Tournament action, we’ve arrived at a Sweet 16 featuring all No. 1 seeds still standing and No. 10 Virginia as the lone double-digit seed. On Saturday, #1 Texas and #5 Kentucky face off in the Women’s Sweet 16, with the Longhorns entering as 14.5-point favorites and a total set at 131.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Saturday’s Sweet 16 matchup, tipping off at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Texas vs. Kentucky prediction
The Longhorns are coming off an absolutely dominant performance in the Round of 32, routing Oregon 100-58 behind Madison Booker’s 40-point, eight-rebound explosion. The junior not only dropped a career high, but also set a Texas record for most points scored in an NCAA Tournament game. Teammates often point to Booker’s unselfishness, noting her tendency to pass when she could easily go get a bucket. But truth be told, she can score from anywhere. On Sunday, she went 8-for-14 on midrange jumpers, and while her 31.9% clip from three on the season isn’t eye-popping, she still knocked down 2-of-3 from deep against the Ducks.
Two other Longhorns are averaging double figures, with Jordan Lee putting up 13.5 PPG and Kyla Oldacre adding 10.4 PPG, rounding out a trio powering the No. 7 scoring offense in the country (85.4 PPG). They’re incredibly efficient, too, shooting 50.1% from the field (fifth in the NCAA). The weakness, though, comes from beyond the arc. Texas ranks last among Division I teams in three-point makes per game (4.2), but has flipped the script in the postseason, shooting 50% from deep through the SEC Tournament and March Madness. They’ll need to keep that hot hand rolling in the Sweet 16.
Kentucky, on the other hand, survived the Round of 32 by defeating No. 4 West Virginia 74-73. Teonni Key led the way with a 19-point, 10-rebound double-double, while star center Clara Strack added 18 points and 15 boards. With three starters standing 6-foot-4 or taller, the Wildcats leaned on their size to dominate the glass, out-rebounding West Virginia 39-23. Despite shooting just 29% from three, Kentucky found success in the paint, scoring 32 points inside. However, 17 turnovers led to 15 points for the Mountaineers — a number that becomes even more dangerous against a high-powered Texas offense. Strack anchored the defense with four blocks, while Tonie Morgan added two. Kentucky’s size is a real advantage, but this isn’t an impenetrable defense — and that’s where things get tricky.
If Texas continues to score at this level, Kentucky will have to play nearly perfect basketball to keep up. The size advantage is real, but slowing down Booker, and an offense that’s starting to heat up from deep, is a completely different challenge.
Texas vs. Kentucky pick
Texas hasn’t been tested in many close games this season, and with the momentum from Booker’s record-setting outing in the Round of 32, I’m not expecting tonight to be any different.
Lean: Texas ML
