And then there were 16.
After an electric second round of NCAAW Tournament action, we’ve arrived at a Sweet 16 featuring all No. 1 seeds still standing and No. 10 Virginia as the lone double-digit seed. On Saturday, #1 South Carolina and and #4 Oklahoma face off in the Women’s Sweet 16, with the Gamecocks entering as 17.5-point favorites and a total set at 153.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Saturday’s Sweet 16 matchup, tipping off at 5:00 p.m. ET.
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma prediction
The Gamecocks have steamrolled their way into the Sweet 16, routing Southern 103-34 in the First Round before turning around and handling No. 9 seed USC, 101-61. Dawn Staley’s squad is no stranger to dancing, winning two of the last four March Madness tournaments, and it’s clear they’re gearing up for another run. Star sophomore Joyce Edwards led the way against USC, dropping 23 points on an efficient 8-of-12 from the field while adding 10 boards for her 8th double-double of the season. Madina Okot and Agot Makeer combined for 30 points, with Okot dominating the glass with 15 rebounds. And the scoring doesn’t stop there. Six Gamecocks finished in double digits as the team shot an impressive 54% from the field.
That number honestly could’ve been higher if shots were falling from deep. South Carolina hit just 4-of-15 from three — uncharacteristic for a team shooting 36.5% from deep on the season (11th in the nation). Defensively, South Carolina did what it always does: control the game and capitalize off turnovers. USC coughed the ball up 27 times, 17 of those coming directly from steals, which turned into 29 points off turnovers. Plain and simple, this is the third-best scoring offense in the country, with the depth, size, speed and grit on defense to overwhelm just about anyone.
On the other side is an Oklahoma squad coming off a gritty 77-71 win over Michigan State. Raegan Beers and Aaliyah Chavez led the way with 18 points each, with Beers adding 14 rebounds for her fifth straight double-double in a March Madness matchup. Zya Vann and Payton Verhulst also chipped in 12 points apiece, combining for nine rebounds, while Verhulst added four steals. If there’s one thing Oklahoma brings, it’s versatility. Beers controlled the paint but still made plays defensively with four steals and two blocks, and as a team, the Sooners leaned into that physical style — scoring 36 points in the paint and out-rebounding Michigan State 45-36.
Here’s where it gets interesting. On paper, South Carolina looks dominant, but Oklahoma already has a win over this team. Back in January, the Sooners took down the Gamecocks 94-82 in overtime, and that came on a quieter night from Chavez, who’s now averaging 17.6 PPG over her last five.
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma pick
South Carolina is full of buckets and has dropped 100+ in each of its last two games, which makes it tough to go against the chalk. But with recent matchup history, and both Beers and Chavez staying hot this tournament, this feels like it could be closer than expected.
Lean: South Carolina ML
