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New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction, pick Saturday 3/28/26

New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction, pick Saturday 3/28/26

Published:

By: Blake Krass

The Mets are taking on the Pirates on Saturday afternoon at Citi Field. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. The Mets are starting David Peterson, while the Pirates are starting Mitch Keller.

New York is a -175 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Pittsburgh sits at +144 on the moneyline. The game total is set at O/U 7.5 runs.

Mets vs. Pirates Preview

Mets Preview

The Mets started the season with a bang, putting up 11 runs against the Pirates. It was a tough task to have to face Paul Skenes on Opening Day, but the Mets forced the Pirates to go to the bullpen in the first inning. Some serious fielding errors from the Pirates did not help the cause, but the Mets’ lineup also looked sharp top-to-bottom. Eight of the nine New York players in the lineup drove in at least one run. The one who didn’t, Francisco Lindor, scored three runs himself.

On the mound, the Mets are starting David Peterson for this game. It’s quite simple: if the Mets get David Peterson from the first half of last season, they’ll be happy. If they get the David Peterson from the second half of last season, the Mets could be in trouble. Last season, Peterson had a 3.06 ERA in the first half of the season and made his first All-Star Game. In the second half, however, he had an awful 6.34 ERA. Peterson hopes to start this 2026 season on a positive note.

Pirates Preview

The Pirates’ lineup did its job on Opening Day. They put up seven runs against the Mets on Thursday. Unfortunately, the pitching and defense were poor. Pittsburgh can try to replicate its offensive success against a weaker opposing pitcher. However, the Pirates also lost a Paul Skenes start on Opening Day. It’s always tough when you can’t win with your superstar pitcher on the mound. Now, Pittsburgh is rolling with Mitch Keller for the second game of this weekend series.

Mitch Keller is a known commodity at this point. He is a solid starter, but he is not excellent. Keller has had three straight seasons of pitching 31 or 32 games with an ERA between 4.19 and 4.25. While that isn’t world-class pitching, it’s always nice to have a pitcher who you can depend on to pitch the whole season and consistently give you a chance to win.

Mets vs. Pirates Pick, Best Bet

After the incredible first game of this series, which combined for 18 runs, I’m backing a lower-scoring game here. On Opening Day, the weather was flawless in Flushing. On Saturday afternoon, it will be in the low 40s and windy. Batters will be much less comfortable than they were on Opening Day. While David Peterson and Mitch Keller don’t have the name-brand value of Paul Skenes and Freddy Peralta, they are very solid pitchers. In two starts against the Mets last season, Mitch Keller combined for just three runs allowed in 12.1 innings of work. When the Mets hosted the Pirates at Citi Field last season, David Peterson threw six innings and allowed just two runs. These two starting pitchers should be solid today and keep this total under 7.5 runs.

Best Bet: Mets/Pirates u7.5 Runs (-112)

Blake Krass has contributed to DraftKings since 2024, and is a content creator with a specialty in sports betting. Blake primarily focuses on college football and NFL coverage but will also be covering college basketball, the NBA, MLB and more. Prior to arriving at DK, Blake was a sports betting writer for The Action Network.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.