And then there were 16.
After an electric second round of NCAAW Tournament action, we’ve arrived at a Sweet 16 featuring all No. 1 seeds still standing and No. 10 Virginia as the lone double-digit seed. On Saturday, #3 Louisville and #2 Michigan face off in the Women’s Sweet 16, with the Wolverines entering as 4.5-point favorites and a total set at 142.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Saturday’s Sweet 16 matchup, tipping off at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Louisville vs. Michigan prediction
The Cardinals are probably still catching their breath after a nail-biter in the Round of 32, narrowly escaping No. 6 Alabama with a 69-68 win despite an off shooting night. After a key steal from Elif Istanbulluoglu with under two minutes left, Reyna Scott’s one-handed buzzer-beater jumper sealed the Crimson Tide’s fate and sent Louisville to the next round. That game was far from their cleanest performance, though. On the season, Louisville shoots 46% from the field and averages 79.4 PPG (17th in the NCAA), but the three ball and free throws nearly cost them. The Cardinals hit just 26.9% from deep (7-of-26) and struggled at the line, converting only 50%. If they want to keep dancing, those numbers have to improve.
What did travel was their presence on the glass. Louisville dominated the boards 41-24, with Mackenly Randolph and Istanbulluoglu combining for 24 rebounds and 36 points. That physicality could be a key equalizer in this matchup.
Michigan, on the other hand, hasn’t faced nearly as much resistance. The Wolverines rolled through Holy Cross (83-48) and NC State (92-63), returning to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2023. In the Round of 32, Olivia Olson led the way with 27 points and three steals, while Syla Swords added 26 points, four rebounds and four assists. Mila Holloway rounded out the scoring but impacted the game everywhere, finishing with nine boards and four assists.
The real difference-maker, though, has been Michigan’s defense. The Wolverines have been relentless, using a trapping, full-court press to force 22 turnovers and convert them into 35 points. Both Holy Cross and NC State managed just 0.63 points per possession against the press — a number that highlights just how disruptive this unit can be.
If the Cardinals can’t clean up the turnovers and find consistency from deep, Michigan’s pressure could take over quickly. Louisville has the size and rebounding edge to make this competitive, but slowing down Olson and Swords, while handling that defensive intensity, is a completely different challenge.
Louisville vs. Michigan pick
72% of the bets are backing Michigan to win, while 28% are on underdog Louisville. The Cardinals have shown they can grind out tight wins, but Michigan’s press defense and proven bucket-getters give the Wolverines the edge here.
Lean: Michigan ML
