Two of the nation’s best squads are set to battle it out on Saturday for a trip to the Final Four. It’s been a miraculous season for #1 Arizona, the best team in the nation according to several fans and analysts. The Wildcats have certainly looked the part, winning three straight March Madness games by double-digits. They’ll face a much stiffer challenge tonight against #2 Purdue. The Boilermakers needed a tip-in buzzer-beater to get past #11 Texas on Thursday. Which players are poised to make a statement in this must-win matchup?
Arizona enters as 5.5-point favorites (-105) over Purdue. The total is set at 153.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:49 p.m. ET. Ahead of this evening’s March Madness action, here are my two favorite college basketball props for Saturday’s Wildcats vs. Boilermakers showdown.
Koa Peat 6+ rebounds (-130)
On a Wildcats squad loaded with impact players, Koa Peat might be the most talented. The freshman has made a name for himself in Tuscon, emerging as a potential NBA Draft lottery pick. Peat is a capable scorer, averaging 13.9 points per game on 54% shooting from the field. However, at 6’8″, he’s also someone that opponents need to prioritize boxing out. The former five-star prospect is hauling in 5.4 rebounds over just 27.5 minutes per game. That’s a threat to any team, even a relatively tall Purdue squad.
The Boilermakers, for all their height, aren’t exactly monsters on the glass. Their 74.6% defensive rebounding percentage is only good enough for 51st in college basketball. In comparison, the Wildcats rank fourth in offensive rebounding rate (38.3%). Peat has managed to snag at least six boards in four of his last five appearances. He’s also seen a slight increase in playing time during the NCAA Tournament. That’s despite two of Arizona’s three games being relatively comfortable victories. In what should be a closer contest, Peat should have ample opportunity to grab some rebounds.
C.J. Cox 9+ points (-115)
Purdue wields the nation’s top-rated adjusted offensive efficiency (132.0) per KenPom. If anyone can find a way to put up buckets against Arizona, it’s the Boilermakers. That means utilizing every weapon at head coach Matt Painter’s disposal. This starting five is dominated by two talented guards and an elite center. On the wings, it’s a bit lacking in terms of depth. Still, C.J. Cox has done an admirable job as an undersized forward. Through 38 games, he’s posted 8.5 points, 2.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists to go with 46/37/84 shooting splits.
A big, imposing Arizona defense has no real weaknesses to exploit. Head coach Tommy Lloyd will likely prioritize stopping Purdue’s best weapons: Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn. It helps that Cox comes into this matchup with some momentum. The wing has tallied at least ten points in each of his three March Madness outings so far. That includes blistering 6-of-12 shooting from three-point range (50%) during that time. Keeping that in mind, Cox is worth heavy consideration on Saturday.
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