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UFC Picks: Top DraftKings DFS Fantasy MMA Targets, Values for Adesanya vs. Pyfer

UFC Picks: Top DraftKings DFS Fantasy MMA Targets, Values for Adesanya vs. Pyfer

DraftKings Fantasy Advice DFS UFC

Published:

By: Ryan Wohl

For the second consecutive year, the UFC is back in Seattle, Washington, for a UFC Fight Night. Saturday’s card is headlined by former Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer. This is the first appearance for “The Last Style Bender” since February 2023, and he enters this fight on a three-fight losing streak.

Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $333K Throwdown [$100K to 1st]

Check out my favorite fighters to add to your daily fantasy lineup for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night below.

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Studs

Israel Adesanya ($8,500)

Israel Adesanya has lost three consecutive fights and is seeking his first victory since April 2023. He is facing rising prospect Joe Pyfer, who has won three straight bouts. Even though both fighters are trending the opposite way, Adesanya still has multiple advantages in this contest.

Adesanya is taller (6’4″ vs. 6’2″) and has a longer reach (80″ vs. 75″), and is the more advanced striker on the feet. The Last Style Bender is known as one of the greatest strikers in the sport. Although he has suffered three consecutive losses, Adesanaya still has the advantage in this matchup in the striking department. Adesanya averages 4.02 significant strikes per minute, 0.55 more than Pyfer. The former title holder is also more accurate, landing significant strikes at a five percent better rate.

Pyfer is a powerful striker, having nine career knockouts. But when he hasn’t scored a knockout, he has been stagnant and passive on the feet. Although Adesanya has only scored 11.6, 45.7, and 37.6 fantasy points in his last three, he has found success in the past. In three of his last four wins, Adesanya has scored 84-plus points. This is an excellent opportunity for Adesanya to return to his dominant form, as he should be able to control the distance while picking Pyfer apart.

Mansur Abdul-Malik ($8,200)

After having a draw against Cody Brundage, Mansur Abdul-Malik scored a first-round submission against Trocoli in his last fight. Abdul-Malik has shown his elite fantasy potential in the UFC, recording 97-plus points in two of his four appearances in the promotion while having at least 88 in three of them. Now Abdul-Malik has a matchup with Yousri Belgaroui, who is coming off a knockout in his UFC debut.

Although Belgaroui is four inches taller (6’6″ vs. 6’2″), Abdul-Malik makes up for it with a one-inch reach advantage (90″ vs. 79″). Including their fights on Dana White’s Contender Series, Belgaroui has the edge in significant strikes landed per minute (5.82 vs. 4.18), striking accuracy (66% vs. 48%), and defense (61% vs. 51%) on the feet.

Something the stats don’t account for is how dominant and fast Abdul-Malik has been in finishing his fights. Seven of Abdul-Malik’s nine fights have ended in the first round, and he has only been in one third round in his career. This fight favors Abdul-Malik because of his aggressiveness, power, and athletic ability. Besides his bout against Brundage, no one has been able to stop Abdul-Malik when he pressures his opponent while immediately looking for a finish.

Value Play

Alexa Grasso ($7,400)

Another former UFC Champion who hasn’t won a fight in quite some time, Alexa Grasso, is fighting Maycee Barber in the co-main event. From August 2020 to March 2023, Grasso won five straight fights with a world title victory over Valentina Shevchenko in that span. But since Grasso has suffered two consecutive losses and is trying to get back in the win column, just like Adesanya.

Barber, 27, has been in the UFC since 2018 and has slowly but surely continued to climb the 125-pound rankings. She has won seven straight bouts and hasn’t lost since February 2021. But take a wild guess who that loss came against. Yes, it was versus Grasso. Grasso beat Barber by unanimous decison at UFC 258 as she finished with five minutes of control time while landing 45 more total strikes.

Grasso recorded at least 90 fantasy points in four of her previous six fights. In her first fight against Barber, Grasso totaled 70.9 points. Recently, Grasso has lacked the urgency to beat tough opponents and hasn’t looked like her former self, who won a UFC title. Grasso has a 58 percent defensive rate on the feet. The former champion must have a high output while displaying good takedown defense.

Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $333K Throwdown [$100K to 1st]

Ryan Wohl

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.