A game-winner from Dylan Darling has sent #5 St. John’s (30-6, 18-2) to its first Sweet 16 since 1999. It’s the 21st win for the scorching-hot Red Storm over their last 22 games. They’ll hope to extend that streak on Friday against #1 Duke (34-2, 17-1). Despite a close call last week vs. Siena, the Blue Devils are one of college basketball’s elite squads. In this battle between conference champions, which side has the edge?
Duke enters as 6.5-point favorites (-112) over St. John’s. The total is set at 141.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Friday’s game between the Red Storm and Blue Devils.
St. John’s vs. Duke prediction, preview
The big men for both sides will take center stage in this East region showdown. For the Johnnies, Zuby Ejiofor has emerged as one of the nation’s most prolific all-around threats. The Big East Player and Defensive Player of the Year has done just about everything for St. John’s. Through 36 games, he’s averaging 16.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists. On defense, he’s notched 2.2 blocks and 1.2 steals. Last weekend vs. Kansas, the center tallied 18 points, nine rebounds and four assists.
Even if Ejiofor struggles to score, the Red Storm have several other names capable of doing so. Bryce Hopkins has been terrific (13.6 PPG, 6.2 REB), while fellow transfers Oziyah Sellers (10.5 PPG) and Ian Jackson (9.6 PPG) have stabilized the back court. If there’s a notable edge in this game for St. John’s, it’s depth. Head coach Rick Pitino has several quality bench players to choose from, including Joson Sanon and the aforementioned Dylan Darling.
If there’s a weakness for this squad, it’s a lack of shooting. The Johnnies are knocking down just 33.2% of their three-point attempts, 218th among all Division I schools. They usually make up for that by playing fast; SJU owns the nation’s 69th-quickest adjusted tempo (69.6) per KenPom. That’s a stark contrast to the Blue Devils, who play at a much slower pace.
Duke head coach Jon Scheyer has built a tough, defensively-minded crew in Durham. That’s despite rostering a boatload of former five-star prospects, including Cameron Boozer. The Wooden Award frontrunner, it’s been a spectacular season for the freshman. Over 36 games, the big man has recorded an ACC-leading 22.4 points in addition to 10.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists. Few players in the nation take on more responsibility on offense than Boozer.
With that being said, the Blue Devils aren’t a one-man show. Isaiah Evans is one of college basketball’s best guards (15.0 PPG), while center Patrick Ngongba is a two-way force (10.5 PPG, 6.0 REB). However, a foot injury for Caleb Foster has left Duke without one of its better playmakers. That was especially notable during the team’s 71-65 win over #16 Siena last week. Scheyer called the junior a “game-time decision” during Thursday’s press conference.
With or without Foster, the ACC champs will hope to impose their will defensively. Duke leads all of college basketball with an 89.5 adjusted defensive efficiency. The team is also holding opponents to 30.5% shooting from three-point range, 20th-lowest in the nation. St. John’s has beaten another big man-centric, defensively gifted squad this season in UConn. Still, the Blue Devils present an even more formidable challenge. They’ve gone 18-2 against Quad 1 foes this season.
St. John’s vs. Duke pick, best bet
A potential return for Foster adds an added variable to this much-anticipated contest. Regardless, there are real concerns for the top-heavy Blue Devils. Balanced offenses tend to win out in March. A game plan that depends almost entirely on Boozer and Evans isn’t a sure thing. That’s especially true when going against a Hall of Fame coach in Pitino. Neither team shoots the ball particularly well either, and both have shown they can win in ugly, physical matchups. With possessions at a potential premium, I expect St. John’s to keep things close on Friday.
Best Bet: St. John’s +6.5 (-106)
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