One of the greatest fighters in UFC history, Israel “The Last Style Bender” Adesanya, is back! After a year away, Adesanya returns to take on rising contender Joe Pyfer in the Main Event of the UFC’s Fight Night in Seattle, Washington. The Main Card for this event begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Check out my best bets for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night headlined by Adesanya vs. Pyfer.
Israel Adesanya Moneyline (-148)
Adesanya and Pyfer enter this contest at different points in their respective careers. Pryor recently reentered the UFC rankings at No. 14 and is riding a three-fight winning streak. Although Adesanya is still No. 4 at 185 pounds, he has suffered three consecutive defeats, with his most recent victory coming in April 2023.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Adesanya is a -148 favorite with Pyfer being the underdog at +124. Adesanya is an excellent value play in this contest because even though Pyfer is on a good run and has shown promise, the former champion is much better with more experience.
Adesanya stands two inches taller (6’4″ vs. 6’2″) and has a five-inch reach advantage (80″ vs. 75″). This will give Adesanya a crucial edge because Pyfer primarily excels when being the bigger fighter, which will not be the case in this fight. Pyfer does possess knockout power and is an elite finisher, but although Adesanya isn’t entering this bout with momentum, the talent is still there.
The former champion has lost three in a row and knows that he needs to deliver in this contest or his career competing at the top could be over. The longer this fight lasts, the more it favors The Last Style Bender. I see Adesanya getting back to his dominant ways in this contest by keeping Pyfer at range while picking him apart and not allowing him to close the distance.
Terrance McKinney Round 1 (+110)
Win or lose, when Terrance McKinney is on a card, you know the fight will be exciting. All 25 career fights for McKinney have ended by submission or knockout, and only four of them have lasted more than one round. McKinney’s last six fights have all ended in the first round, and his previous 13 victories have all come in the first.
The second the fight starts, McKinney is always aggressive, looking for a quick finish. He is facing Kyle Nelson, who is 4-1 in his previous five fights and last beat Matt Frevola. McKinney is the better all-around fighter in this contest, averaging more significant strikes per minute (6.24 vs. 3.60) and landing more takedowns (3.34 vs. 1.18). McKinney’s speed and pace should overwhelm Nelson in this bout. Since McKinney is versatile, I’m taking him to win this fight by KO/TKO/DQ or submission at -170.
Navajo Stirling To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-175)
Adesanya’s teammate at City Kickboxing, Navajo Stirling, is taking on Bruno Lopes in a Light Heavyweight bout on the Prelims. Stirling is 3-0 in the UFC after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2024. His MMA career began in September 2022 and has since put together an 8-0 record with four wins by knockout. His opponent, Lopes, is 1-1 in the UFC and suffered a first-round knockout loss to Dustin Jacoby in his previous fight.
Stirling is a big -675 favorite as Lopes is +490 in this contest on DraftKings Sportsbook. After having three consecutive wins by decision, I think this is a perfect spot for Stirling to move to 9-0 and pick up his fifth career knockout.
Stirling is two inches taller (6’4″ vs. 6’2″), with a five-inch larger standing reach (79″ vs. 74″), and should be able to use that to his advantage. He averages 6.13 significant strikes per minute compared to Lopes’ 2.81. If Stirling moves forward and is more aggressive, he should be able to use his power to frustrate Lopes, leading to a finish.
