And then there were 16.
After an electric second round of NCAAW Tournament action, we’ve arrived at a Sweet 16 featuring all No. 1 seeds still standing and No. 10 Virginia as the lone double-digit seed. On Friday, #4 North Carolina and #1 UConn face off in the Women’s Sweet 16, with the Huskies entering as 27.5-point favorites and a total set at 131.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup, tipping off at 5:00 p.m. ET.
UConn vs. North Carolina prediction
And the winning streak continues. The undefeated Huskies steamrolled No. 9 seed Syracuse on Monday, outscoring the Orange 98-45 after ripping off a ridiculous 31-0 run to open the game. Senior Azzi Fudd, who will likely go No. 1 overall in the upcoming WNBA Draft, absolutely shined with 34 points and eight threes, while adding five assists and four steals. Sophomore star Sarah Strong and freshman Blanca Quiñonez each added 18 points, and as a team, UConn shot 50% from beyond the arc. The Huskies’ defense has been just as suffocating, holding Syracuse to 33% from the field and an absurd 1-for-18 from deep.
Over their last 10 games, UConn has held opponents to just 50.2 points per game and hasn’t allowed a single team to crack 70. With the ability to score at will and a two-way phenom in Strong, the favorites to win it all on DraftKings Sportsbook aren’t just hitting their stride, they’re living in it. Dominance almost feels like an understatement for a team that hasn’t lost since December 2024.
Enter North Carolina, heading to the Sweet 16 for the second straight year — and now tasked with taking down a giant. In the Round of 32, the Tar Heels handled No. 5 seed Maryland, 74-66, using a strong opening quarter and a 24-point fourth to pull away. Elina Aarnisalo led the charge with 21 points, with Lanie Grant right behind her at 20. Four players finished in double figures, highlighting UNC’s depth and ability to generate points in the paint — 44 of them, to be exact.
For a team that typically isn’t shy from three, UNC attempted just 11 shots from deep, hitting four. Still, the perimeter defense stood out, holding Maryland to just 13% from beyond the arc. However, to compete with UConn’s dominant defense and high-scoring offense, the Tar Heels will likely need to let it fly in this matchup.
UConn vs. North Carolina pick
The more I write, the more I’m in awe of this UConn team. I’ve heard whispers that this squad is slightly better than last year’s — which featured Paige Bueckers — and with the pure dominance they’re showing, that just might be true.
Strong Lean: UConn ML
