The NBA regular season continues to wind down over the coming weeks with roughly 10 games remaining on the schedule for most teams. Hope was lost ages ago for the New Orleans Pelicans, but the franchise has appeared far more competitive over the past month than it did for most of the year prior. Tonight, they’re in Toronto to duel the Raptors, who are in a little bit of a skid but are firmly in the postseason mix in the Eastern Conference.
Here’s a Pelicans vs. Raptors prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s contest.
Pelicans vs. Raptors prediction, preview
New Orleans Pelicans
Are the Pels still bad? Absolutely; at 25-49 on the campaign and 10.5 games back of a Play-In Tournament berth, their season ended long ago. However, they’ve put forth some decent efforts in recent weeks and are 5-5 across their last 10 games. While they’re 6-7 when Dejounte Murray plays after his return from a significant injury, he’s sidelined tonight for injury maintenance along with Trey Murphy III (ankle).
New Orleans has a -3.9 NETRTG that ranks 21st in the NBA while operating at 12th in pace. A poor defense has caused the group to falter all season long, giving up 119.3 PPG with the 24th-ranked DEFRTG in the process. They’re particularly weak on the perimeter at 27th in opponent 3PM per game, but the struggles of a poor interior defense that allows the second-highest 2P% have also created problems. Still, there are some semi-bright spots to be found. The Pelicans are 14th in rebounding with 43.9 boards a night and the offense is fairly respectable. They average 115.4 PPG, 17th in the league, shooting 46.7% overall and 34.8% from deep. There just aren’t a ton of assists to go around and a 1.794 AST/TO ratio that falls 19th doesn’t help things.
That means Zion Williamson should lead the way tonight with averages of 21.4 points and 5.8 rebounds a game, though his minutes remain somewhat limited on a regular basis to protect his health. He’s joined by Saddiq Bey, who’s posting a career-best 17.4 points with 5.6 rebounds. Jordan Poole is expected to play tonight with 13.3 points and 3.0 assists, and young guard Jeremiah Fears produces similar numbers with 13.1 points and 3.2 dimes. Fellow rookie Derik Queen also averages 11.3 points and a team-best 6.8 boards a night.
Toronto Raptors
Now for the Raptors, who are certainly the better team despite a 5-5 stretch over their last 10 contests. Overall this season, they’ve produced to the tune of a 40-32 record and are sixth in the Eastern Conference after clinching a postseason berth, though there’s plenty left to play for as they compete for positioning in the eventual bracket with several teams with 1.5 games of their spot.
Toronto’s NETRTG of +1.5 sits 13th in the NBA as it plays at the 21st-ranked pace. The Raptors are a strong defensive unit that makes life difficult for opponents, allowing the ninth-fewest PPG at 112.4 and also coming in at ninth in DEFRTG. They’re pedestrian on the glass with 42.3 rebounds a game, but they do average the sixth-most opponent turnovers to make up for it. The offense, however, scores just 113.9 PPG but generally does enough to get the job done. The Raptors are first in fastbreak points per game as well as third in assists (29.1) and AST/TO ratio (2.113), so they run a pretty clean attack that gets out in transition. They also shoot 47.6% overall, good for 10th, hitting 34.9% of three-point attempts.
Practically the entire lineup is available tonight outside of Immanuel Quickley (foot). Brandon Ingram’s 21.5 PPG are a team high as he pitches in 5.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists. RJ Barrett averages 18.9 points, and Scottie Barnes brings all-around prowess with 18.5 points, 7.8 boards and 5.5 assists a game. Sandro Mamukelashvili scores 10.9 PPG while Jakob Poeltl holds down the center position with 10.4 points and 7.5 rebounds as well. Collin Murray-Boyles and Jamal Shead each play key roles, too.
Pelicans vs. Raptors pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Raptors as -8.5 favorites tonight with -340 odds on the Moneyline. The Pelicans are listed at +270 odds on the ML with the game total set at 227.5 combined points.
I may regret this pick a little bit given that New Orleans is somehow covering at around a 59% rate this season, but I actually don’t think the visitors will get in under this 8.5-point margin here. The absence of Murphy is obviously massive as the team loses its leading scorer, and beyond that, Murray has played an integral role when on the floor with 17.2 points and 6.5 assists a game. Those are two huge losses to weather, especially since they both played in the lone meeting between these teams this season — they combined for 55 points in that game, which the Pelicans won 122-111.
Those absences mean the Pels have to find high-end support from elsewhere in the rotation to help Williamson carry the load, but that may be tough against one of the NBA’s more physical defenses. Plus, they’re 25th in opponent fastbreak points allowed per game and don’t defend the paint well, which are areas the Raptors excel in. Given the talent discrepancy between these rotations (especially at the top for Toronto), the Raps should cover at home tonight.
Top pick: TOR Raptors -8.5 (-110)
