The NCAA Tournament is now halfway through the regional semifinals. The field of teams continues to thin down with each remaining program having its sights set on cutting down the nets. Facing off in the East Region of the bracket, the Michigan State Spartans will take on the Connecticut Huskies tonight.
These are two heavyweight teams that are each legitimate threats to win the championship. However, the pair of old-school programs will have to face off against each other in a one-game winner-takes-all format to put the beauty of the tournament on display.
Looking at the odds, Connecticut enters as a narrow 1.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Michigan State holds +105 odds on the Moneyline, with the game total set at O/U 135.5 points.
Michigan State vs. UConn prediction, preview
The Michigan State Spartans earned a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament, holding a 27-7 overall record on the season. They defeated North Dakota State 92-67 in the opening game and Louisville 77-69 in the round of 32 to remain alive. Michigan State appears to have woken up after closing down the season with back-to-back losses to Michigan and UCLA, looking the part of the deep NCAA Tournament threat they desired. The Spartans have gone 11-6 in Quad 1 matchups and 4-1 in Quad 2 games this year. On the season, Michigan State has gone 19-15 against the spread, and the game total has gone 18-16 to the over/under.
Tom Izzo’s squad leans on its defensive identity for success. The Spartans score 79.3 points per game, which ranks 97th in the country. They also rank 42nd in offensive rating, 53rd in field goal percentage, 41st in three-point percentage, and they tally the fourth-most assists in the country. Defensively, opponents are scoring 68.4 points per game against Michigan State, which ranks 43rd among D1 teams. They also rank 51st in defensive rating, 36th in opponents’ field goal percentage, 128th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and allow the fewest rebounds to opponents in the country.
Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the team with 15.3 points per game and leads the nation with 9.4 assists per game. Jaxon Kohler is averaging 12.6 points and 8.9 rebounds, while shooting 39.3% on three-point attempts. Coen Carr is also an important scoring threat, posting averages of 12.0 points and 5.5 rebounds, while Carson Cooper is the only other to average double figures with 11.0 points and 7.1 rebounds of his own. Jordan Scott, Kur Teng, and Trey Fort also play notable roles.
The Connecticut Huskies won the NCAA Championship in two of the past three years, but were eliminated in the second round of last year’s event. They are looking to get back to the mountain top this season, and defeated Furman 82-71 in the opening round and UCLA 73-57 in the previous game. UConn is 31-5 on the season, including going 8-3 in Quad 1 matchups and 11-1 when facing Quad 2 opponents. On the season, Connecticut has gone 14-22 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 19 of their 36 games played.
Dan Hurley’s team is also dependent on its strong defensive identity for success. Opposing teams are scoring 65.1 points per game against the Huskies, which is the 11th-best rate in the country. Connecticut also ranks 21st in defensive rating, 19th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 33rd in opponents’ three-point percentage. Offensively, UConn is scoring 77.5 points per game, which ranks 135th among D1 teams. They also rank 49th in offensive rating, 35th in team field goal percentage, and 144th in three-point percentage.
Tarris Reed Jr. leads the team with 14.2 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. Alex Karaban carries his national championship experience, adding 13.3 points and 5.2 rebounds, while shooting 39.4% from beyond the three-point arc. Solo Ball pitches in 13.0 points per game of his own, while Braylon Mullins and Silas Demary Jr. also average in double figures. Eric Reibe and Malachi Smith also play notable roles on the roster.
Michigan State vs. Connecticut pick, best bet
These are two old-school styles of coaches that have established programs with similar identities. My lean would be toward the under, due to the defensive-minded approach from both sides. Count on each team being content playing at a slow pace, and for the first team to crack 55 to see a clear path to a win.
But I am backing Michigan State to pull off the slight upset and earn a place in the top eight teams. The Spartans are battle-tested and will not back down to anyone. Jeremey Fears Jr. is the type of floor general you want on your side in big moments, and his poise down the stretch will prove vital. Michigan State shot well in the previous win over Louisville, including knocking down 42% of their three-point attempts, and outrebounding the Cardinals by seven. Defense will continue to be their calling card, but there have been some signs of life in the Michigan State offensive attack of late. They enter this matchup having scored 76 or more in eight of their last nine games.
Expect points to be difficult to come by against this Connecticut defense, but for the Huskies to have even greater questions about the outlook for their offense. The program has a sky-high standard with the pair of national championships still fresh in our minds. But the reality is this iteration of UConn lacks the top-end talent that these teams had. Connecticut turned the ball over 16 times against UCLA, and Michigan State will be capable of punishing them if these same opportunities arise. Connecticut has lost five of its last six games against teams ranked in the AP’s top 11. They are dependent on leaning on an athletic and toughness advantage for success, and Michigan State is a rare team that can match or beat them in this category.
Tom Izzo has been open about this current group providing a spark of energy to him. Their journey is not done yet, and expect them to bring all-out effort to keep the season alive. Expect this to be a physical battle in which neither team can take a convincing lead throughout. But Michigan State has slightly more reason for belief on both sides of the ball, and I expect this to be the difference. Count on Fears Jr. to be the difference down the stretch and for the Spartans to keep dancing tonight.
