A pair of top teams will look to keep their postseason run alive when the No. 3 LSU Tigers meet the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on Friday.
The Tigers are 8.5-point favorites with -395 odds on the moneyline, according to the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Duke has +310 odds of pulling off the upset, while the over/under is set at a total of 146.5 points.
Ahead, I break down my favorite pick and prediction for the LSU vs. Duke Sweet 16 matchup.
Duke vs. LSU prediction, pick
Duke followed up a strong 2024-25 campaign with another strong season in the 2025-26 season. After winning the ACC Tournament and making it to the Elite Eight last year, the Blue Devils finished first in the ACC and won the conference for a second straight season, and they will look to make a return to the Elite Eight once more as well.
The Blue Devils had another successful run behind a strong defensive team, which ranked first in the ACC allowing 58.7 points a game. Their 36.9% field-goal percentage allowed was second while teams only managed a 26.7% three-point percentage, also first in the conference. Duke was also one of the best at turning teams over this season, forcing 17.2 turnovers and getting 6.4 blocks a game, fourth and first, respectively.
Duke rode that defense all the way to a conference championship and through its first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament as well, with the Blue Devils on a five-game win streak. During that time, the Blue Devils are allowing 56.8 points a game on 34.2% shooting, with teams hitting just 23.6% of their three-pointers, including one going 0-of-14 from three. Duke has also had 7.6 blocks and has gotten 13.8 points from 17.4 opponent turnovers a game in that time.
LSU is similar to Duke, hoping to keep pace with or improve upon its tournament results from a season ago. The Tigers lost their semifinal game in the SEC Tournament before making a run to the Elite Eight in the NCAA Tournament last year. LSU had the same result in the SEC Tournament this year, finishing fourth in the conference before dropping in the semifinals, and the team will now look to keep its tournament run going again.
LSU’s success is run by its high-flying offense, which is first in the country in scoring and third in the nation in shooting percentage. The Tigers have averaged 95.3 points a game this season on 50.9% shooting, while their 37.8% shooting percentage from beyond the arc also ranks third nationally. LSU was also one of the top offensive rebounding teams, with its 17.3 boards a game third in the country as well.
Outside of their semifinal conference tournament loss, the Tigers have been on a roll lately, winning seven of their last eight. LSU has scored over 100 points in four of those games, including its two NCAA tournament games. In its last five games, LSU has averaged 95.6 points a game, shooting 51.6% from the field and 38.2% from beyond the arc. The Tigers have also gotten 13 offensive rebounds in their last four games, good for 16.5 second-chance points, with those stats not tracked for regular-season finale against Mississippi State.
Duke vs. LSU Best Bet
These two teams met early on in the nonconference season, with LSU besting Duke 93-77 on Duke’s home floor in the ACC/SEC challenge on Dec. 4. Duke is a different team since that 16-point loss, putting together its own strong postseason run with a couple double-digit wins in the tournament. However, I’m still backing the Tigers to cover the 8.5-point spread to advance to the Elite Eight.
LSU owns the top offense in the country behind a balanced scoring attack of Flau-jae Johnson, MiLaysia Fulwiley and Mikaylah Williams, who all average around 14 points a game. But its defense is just as strong, as the Tigers give up just 60.4 points a game and have the second-best point differential at +34.9.
Duke also got outrebounded by LSU 34-25 in the first meeting and it has given up 31 offensive boards through its first two tournament games, a spot where LSU thrives. With the Tigers’ strong defense as well, they should be able to keep the Blue Devils just out of reach enough to cover the spread.
