Last season, Duke finished with the No. 1 seed behind a stacked squad led by Kon Knueppel and Cooper Flagg, who will likely go on to finish first and second in the NBA Rookie of the Year race. This season, the Blue Devils are the No. 1 seed behind a stacked squad led by Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba II, both of whom will likely be first-round picks in the upcoming draft.
But having the top seed and a lot of talent is not a guarantee of success. Last season, Duke blew a late lead to lose in the national semifinals to Houston. The Blue Devils were tested by No. 16 Siena in the first round.
After settling down in the second round against No. 9 TCU, Duke will play in the Sweet 16 against a surprising St. John’s, which upset Kansas in the second round and is seeking its first Elite Eight appearance since 1998-99. The game will tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET.
The Blue Devils are 6.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-285 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 141.5. The Red Storm are +230 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from this pivotal matchup.
Best St. John’s vs. Duke player prop bets
Cameroon Boozer 22+ Points (-135)
The potential first overall pick had a rough go of it in the first round against the Saints, shooting just four-for-11 from the field, but he managed to finish with a team-leading 22 points because he went 13-for-14 from the free-throw line. All in all, he’s recorded at least 22 points in 20 of his 36 starts. He’s an extremely versatile scoring threat; of his high-scoring games, he shot at least 70% from two-point range in 10 times, made at least three triples six times, and attempted at least 10 free throws eight times. Boozer’s well-rounded game should serve him well against St. John’s, which has one of the country’s better defenses.
The Red Storm have the eighth-ranked opponent-adjusted defense by KenPom’s standards, but that doesn’t mean they can stop Boozer. After all, he had 29 against Florida, who finished sixth at KenPom. St. John’s comparatively struggled against forwards, ranking just 58th in field goal percentage defense despite ranking 44th in three-point percentage defense, and it allowed both Northern Iowa and Kansas to shoot nearly 50% from two-point range. Plus, the Red Storm ranked just 160th in fouls per game, and Boozer is pretty automatic from the charity stripe.
Oziyah Sellers 2+ Three-Pointers Made (+100)
Sellers had a solid effort in St. John’s first-round win, canning three of his nine triples and scoring 11 points, and while he was quiet against the Jayhawks, he’s generally trending in the right direction, making at least two threes four times in a seven-game span prior to the game against Kansas. The senior hasn’t had the most efficient season, dropping to 35.4% from deep after making at least 40% in his previous two seasons, but his prior track record and 86.9% career free-throw percentage underscore his natural shooting talent.
It might make some sense for the Red Storm to run their offense through the perimeter this afternoon. Duke is an elite rebounding team, ranking fifth in rebound margin, and it’s also had stellar rim protection, ranking ninth in field goal percentage defense, so St. John’s’ best player, Zuby Ejiofor, might have some trouble. While the Blue Devils have also had solid three-point defense, ranking 25th in three-point percentage defense, they’re beatable by hot three-point shooting teams, just as North Carolina did on February 7 when it shot eight-for-19 (42%) from deep in a win.
Patrick Ngongba II 6+ Rebounds (-105)
Ngongba only played 13 minutes off the bench against the Horned Frogs after missing three weeks with a sore foot, but he made a huge impact, snagging four boards and dishing out four assists. Now that he’s had an additional five days to recover, he should be able to play more minutes, and it would be reasonable to expect him to start, especially since he has the size (six-foot-11, 250 pounds) to bother Ejiofor. In the 21 games in which he played at least 20 minutes, he snagged at least six rebounds 13 times.
Even with Ejiofor, the Red Storm just aren’t an elite rebounding team. They out-rebounded opponents by only 4.3 per game during the regular season, a good-but-not-great mark for such a highly-touted team, and their only player as tall as Ngongba plays only 10.7 minutes per game. Plus, because St. John’s is a poor shooting team, ranking just 223rd in effective field goal percentage, there should be plenty of defensive rebounding opportunities available for Ngongba. He should be able to dominant Ejiofor, who posted the lowest offensive rebounding percentage of his career.
