The last time Michigan was the No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, it ended up falling in the Elite Eight in an ugly affair against No. 11 UCLA, the latest in a series of surprising shortcomings for the 1989 champions.
Now, the Wolverines have a chance to advance back to the Elite Eight for the first time since that defeat. They’ve made a fairly comfortable run through the tournament so far, winning both of their games by more than 20 points, but No. 4 Alabama — which also won both of its first two rounds by at least 20 points — will be a stiff test. The game will tip off at 7:35 p.m. ET.
Michigan is an 8.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-485 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 172.5. The Crimson Tide are +370 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from this pivotal matchup.
Best Michigan vs. Alabama player prop bets
Latrell Wrightsell Jr. 15+ Points (+115)
So far for Alabama, it’s been no Aden Holloway, no problem. After Holloway was arrested on marijuana charges, ruling him out indefinitely, Wrightsell stepped up in a major way, scoring 24 points and canning six of his nine threes in the Crimson Tide’s blowout win against No. 5 Texas Tech in the second round. He had a more muted performance against Hofstra in the first round, but his 11 points could’ve easily been 15 if he hadn’t had an anomalously poor shooting night. All in all, I’m happy to bank on a player who ranked a solid 59th in the country in made threes per game and 84th in three-point percentage for one of the best perimeter-shooting teams in the country.
Of course, Wrightsell has a difficult matchup on Friday against the Wolverines, who rank second in the country by KenPom’s schedule-adjusted defensive rating and held a pretty high-powered Saint Louis offense to just 72 points. However, Michigan’s best players are all front-court players, so it has been comparatively more gettable from beyond the arc. The Wolverines ranked just 34th in three-point percentage defense despite ranking third in overall field goal percentage defense, and they allowed the Bison to shoot 48% from beyond the arc in the first round. Michigan’s relative struggles suggest that Alabama should run the offense through Wrightsell, not Labaron Philon Jr., tonight.
Morez Johnson Jr. 9+ Rebounds (+115)
The Wolverines are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, snagging nearly 40 rebounds per game and having three different players averaging at least 6.9 rebounds per game. But among Michigan’s three-headed front-court machine, Johnson has been the most dominant on the glass, averaging 7.3 boards per contest. He had 10 against Howard and eight in the second round, leading the team in both cases. Between the regular season and the first two rounds of the tournament, he and Yaxel Lendeborg have each led the Wolverines in boards 13 times.
Rebounding just isn’t the Crimson Tide’s strength. Because Alabama is a guard-oriented team, only Amari Allen and Aiden Sherrell even average more than five rebounds per game, and while the Crimson Tide technically averaged more boards per game than Michigan overall, they also played at the nation’s sixth-fastest pace. As a result, they finished 162nd in rebound margin and allowed 39.7 per game. Johnson is one inch taller and 45 pounds heavier than Allen, so if Mara can box out Sherrell and doesn’t take too many rebounds away from his teammate, Johnson should be in good position to feast.
Elliott Cadeau 8+ Assists (+130)
Cadeau was strong in both of the first two rounds, dishing out nine assists against the Bison and seven against the Billikens, and given Alabama’s lightning-quick pace, he should get enough possessions to record at least eight tonight. The junior guard picked up his playmaking throughout the season, averaging 5.2 assists per game up through January 23 but 6.3 per game since then despite the Wolverines’ average competition getting tougher. He had nine assists against Iowa on March 5 despite the Hawkeyes having a better defensive rating than the Crimson Tide.
Alabama’s defense has been okay so far this tournament, as it has given up 70 or fewer points in both of its contests, but it is relatively gettable from inside the arc. The Crimson Tide were mainly able to beat Texas Tech in the second round because the Red Raiders shot just four-for-25 (16%) from beyond the arc; within the arc, they converted at a 47.2% rate, only a tick worse than their 53.5% mark for the season as a whole. Because Michigan has such strong front-court play and Alabama comparatively struggles in the interior, Cadeau should be able to dump it down to Lendeborg, Mara, and Johnson for easy buckets. Plus, his main issue is with turnovers, and the Crimson Tide aren’t great at forcing giveaways.
