While the UConn women romp their way through the NCAA Tournament, the Huskies’ men are in search of their third title in four seasons after winning back-to-back championships in 2023 and 2024. So far, the No. 2 seed looks like a threat to cut down the nets, having dispatched No. 15 Furman and No. 7 UCLA with relative ease in the first two rounds.
No. 3 Michigan State awaits Connecticut in the Sweet 16. The Spartans have also had a convincing run through the tournament so far, throttling No. 14 North Dakota State in the first round and picking up a narrow win over No. 6 Louisville in the second round. The game will begin at 9:45 p.m. ET.
The Huskies are 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-130 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 134.5. Michigan State is +110 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from this clash of college basketball titans.
Best Michigan State vs. UConn player prop bets
Alex Karaban 15+ Points (+150)
Experience tends to be paramount in the NCAA Tournament, so perhaps it’s not a surprise that Karaban, who was on both of the championship-winning squads, has had a dominant tournament run so far, scoring 22 points in the first round and one-upping himself with 27 in the second round. The 16 shots that he attempted in each game are tied for his second-highest total of the season, as are the five free throws that he attempted against the Bruins. He should continue to have a massive role, as he easily leads the team in minutes per game.
Given his recent form, 15 points isn’t a particularly high bar. It accounts for some shooting regression against a strong Spartans defense that ranks 13th by KenPom’s opponent-adjusted defensive rating. Plus, Michigan State has been better within the arc, ranking 36th in field goal percentage defense and just 127th in three-point percentage defense, so it might make some sense for Dan Hurley to run his offense through his shooters, Karaban and Silas Demary Jr. Demary might be challenged by Jeremy Fears Jr., who has shown some solid defensive chops, making Karaban the stronger play.
Coen Carr 7+ Rebounds (+135)
The two most successful Michigan State alumni in the NBA were both known for their rebounding prowess (though in slightly different ways), as Magic Johnson was the league’s first true jumbo-sized point guard and Draymond Green one of the best undersized centers because of his tenacity on the glass at just six-foot-five. It checks out, then, that the six-foot-six Carr’s rebounding has proven critical as of late for the Spartans. Carr has snagged at least seven rebounds in three of his last four games, including 10 against Louisville, and he previously had seven-board efforts against other top teams in Michigan and Illinois.
UConn is a decent rebounding team, but not a great one. This season, the Huskies ranked 27th in rebounding margin, a good margin overall but not one typical of a national championship contender. Of course, Carr will have to contend with Tarris Reed Jr., who dominated Furman in the first round with a 31-point, 27-rebound effort, but if Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper can box out Reed, Carr should be able to find some success against Karaban, who averaged his second fewest rebounds per 40 minutes.
Kur Teng 2+ Three-Pointers Made (-105)
Teng wasn’t much of a factor for Michigan State last season, averaging just 3.1 minutes per game as a first-year, but he’s emerged as a valuable sixth man in his sophomore campaign, attempting a team-high 4.3 three-pointers per game and shooting a solid 38.4%. He’s on a hot streak, having made at least two threes in eight of his last 11 games while shooting 43.1% from deep across that span. He’s seen his playing time slip slightly during the first two rounds, but UConn doesn’t have a lot of depth, so fresh bodies could be a useful asset for the Spartans.
The Huskies have solid perimeter defense, limiting opponents to the 33rd-lowest three-point percentage this season, but given that their two-point defense has been comparably better (12th), Michigan State would be well-served attacking UConn from the perimeter. The Huskies also aren’t a great defensive rebounding team, so the Spartans could rack up offensive rebounds and kick it out immediately for Teng threes. Plus, the three bench players who average the most minutes per game for UConn are all forwards, which could allow Teng to feast against the Huskies’ bench units.
