The SEC takes on the Big 12 tonight, with a trip to the Elite Eight hanging in the balance. #6 Tennessee has impressed during the tournament, taking down a quality Virginia squad last weekend. #2 Iowa State is a bonafide national title contender, but may be without key starter Joshua Jefferson (ankle). In this must-win matchup, which players will perform in primetime?
Iowa State enters as 4.5-point favorites (-115) over Tennessee. The total is set at 139.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Ahead of this evening’s March Madness action, here are my two favorite college basketball props for Friday’s Volunteers vs. Cyclones showdown.
J.P. Estrella 18+ points + rebounds (-115)
Tennessee, as is always the case under head coach Rick Barnes, likes churning out ugly, low-scoring wins. This group plays at the nation’s 61st-slowest adjusted tempo (65.1) on offense, per KenPom. As a result, player props can be a bit of a mixed bag for the Volunteers. If this squad has one defining trait, it’s their tenacity on the glass. UT leads college basketball with a 44.8% offensive rebounding rate. A big factor behind that statistic is J.P. Estrella. The 6’11” center has been a force down low all season. Through 31 games, he’s averaging 10.2 points and 5.4 rebounds while shooting 62% from the field.
Let’s be very clear: there’s no ‘weakness’ when it comes to this Cyclones defense. They’re giving up a meager 65.3 points per game, the nation’s 12th-lowest mark. With that being said, this group is slightly more vulnerable inside the paint than on the perimeter. Iowa State has a middling 73.7% defensive rebounding percentage, 84th-best in college basketball. As previously mentioned, Tennessee is the nation’s premier offensive rebounding team. ISU has just two players in its main rotation taller than 6’8″; the Vols have three 6’10” giants in their starting lineup. That’ll make boxing out even more difficult than usual for the #2-seed. Estrella has recorded 18+ points + rebounds in five of his last seven contests; he’s poised for another productive outing on Friday.
Tamin Lipsey 2+ three-pointers made (+145)
As previously mentioned, Jefferson remains a game-time decision as of this afternoon. Whether or not the forward plays, Iowa State’s offense still has two legitimate stars in Milan Momcilovic and Tamin Lipsey. The latter is a true jack of all trades, doing a little bit of everything for the Cyclonse. This season, the guard has recorded 13.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game while shooting 46% from the field. One area where Lipsey hasn’t been so impressive is from beyond the arc; he’s gone 32% from three-point range.
Despite his inconsistent shooting, Lipsey has shown signs of improvement recently from long distance. Iowa State’s lead ball handler has knocked down at least two treys in five of his last seven appearances. Tennessee is a bit of a contradiction; the school has held its opponents to meager 30.5% shooting from three-point range. However, the Volunteers are also giving up the 34th-most three-point attempts per field goals attempted (44.9). In other words, teams are more than willing to let it fly vs. UT. Lipsey, entering Friday on a hot streak, offers value here at +145.
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