Tipping off as part of tonight’s 10-game NBA slate, the Atlanta Hawks will be squaring off with the Boston Celtics in a matchup that holds significant weight in the Eastern Conference standings.
This is the third of four times these teams will match up this season, with the next game taking place on Monday. These two teams have split the pair of matchups to this point, with the Celtics producing a 132-106 win in the first game and the Hawks bouncing back with a 117-106 win in the previous matchup. This took place on January 28th, so plenty has changed with both teams since this point.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Celtics are 5.5-point favorites and hold -218 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hawks hold +180 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 225.5 points.
Hawks vs. Celtics preview
The Atlanta Hawks have been one of the better surprises this NBA season. They hold a 41-32 overall record and have climbed to fifth place in the Eastern Conference. They have won 14 of their last 15 games, but have just a half-game lead above the Raptors for that 5-seed, and there are five teams within a 1.5-game lead of Atlanta. On the season, the Hawks have gone 40-33 against the spread this season, and the game total is 37-36 to the over/under.
Jalen Johnson returned from a two-game absence due to a shoulder injury and picked up right where he left off in the previous win. The Duke product has grown into the face of the franchise in Atlanta, posting averages of 22.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game on the season. Jonathan Kuminga has shown some encouraging flashes across his first nine games with the organization, averaging 12.8 points and 6.6 rebounds. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has also benefited from playing with some additional freedom, adding 20.4 points and 3.7 assists per game. CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu and Corey Kispert each also play important roles.
As a team, the Hawks are scoring 118.4 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. They also rank 14th in offensive rating, 13th in field-goal percentage and sixth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 116.6 points per game against the Hawks, which ranks 18th in the league. Atlanta also ranks 10th in defensive rating, 18th in opponent field-goal percentage and 13th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Boston Celtics sit in second place in the Eastern Conference with a 48-24 record on the season. All thoughts of this being a gap year have been wiped away as Jaylen Brown held the franchise up, and Jayson Tatum has now made his return. They hold just a one-game lead over the Knicks for the second seed, with the final push for the playoffs on. Boston has gone 41-31 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 46 of their 72 games played.
Unfortunately for the Celtics, Jaylen Brown will miss today’s action with an Achilles issue. In addition, Nikola Vucevic remains sidelined with a right finger fracture, while Derrick White and Neemias Queta are available tonight. White is averaging 17.2 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game on the season, while Queta has largely held down the starting center spot with averages of 9.9 points and 8.3 rebounds per game this year. Jayson Tatum is posting averages of 19.1 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists across his first nine games played. Payton Pritchard also took a leap in his production adding 16.6 points and 5.2 assists per game, while Sam Hauser, Baylor Scheierman, Jordan Walsh and Luka Garza also play notable roles.
Joe Mazzulla’s group is scoring 114.2 points per game this season, which ranks 20th in the NBA. The Celtics also rank second in offensive rating, 21st in field goal percentage, and 11th in three-point percentage while launching the third-most perimeter attempts per game. Defensively, Boston is holding teams to 107.0 points per game, which is the fewest points in the league. They also rank fourth in defensive rating, second in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 16th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Hawks vs. Celtics prediction, pick
Both of these teams have made a clear case why they deserve to be taken seriously in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They have gone through some major midseason changes, with Trae Young traded away from the Hawks and Jayson Tatum returning for the Celtics. But both sides have remained committed to their organizational identity and gotten results all throughout. Each team has largely exceeded its expectations coming into the season and will look to finish the year strong.
But looking at the outlook for tonight, I like the Hawks to cover the +4.5-point spread and believe they should be viewed as live underdogs outright.
Atlanta has built a clear identity and has an athletic advantage in just about every matchup they face. They enter this matchup having won 14 of their last 15, and have covered the spread in 13 of these games. Over this stretch, the Hawks lead the NBA in scoring, rank sixth in offensive rating, first in defensive rating, second in net rating, and fifth in opponents’ points allowed.
On the other side of this matchup, the absence of Jaylen Brown is a big deal. The former Finals MVP has stepped up into a legitimate NBA MVP candidate this season, posting averages of 28.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists on the year. Jayson Tatum is still kicking off some rust, and will step to the center stage of the offensive attack tonight. His raw averages of 19.1 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists are respectable, but he is shooting just 39.1% from the field and 30.9% on three-point attempts. Tatum will find his legs as he gets more reps under him, but expect the Hawks to have success matching his skillset and frame with their collection of wins. This is the type of matchup that will expose him (expectedly) not being back to the best version of himself yet, and these growing pains are necessary.
This is a Hawks team that is clicking on all cylinders and the Celtics being without Jaylen Brown is too much to overlook. Expect Atlanta to have success on both ends of the ball and use their athletic advantage to dominate the boards. It is going to take a major effort to take down the Hawks the way they are currently playing. I am backing the Hawks to cover the +4.5-point spread and think an outright win is certainly on the table.
