It was a dominant weekend for #1 Michigan (33-3, 19-1), winners of two straight by double-digits. Still, a Sweet 16 appearance won’t cut it for the title-contending Wolverines. Next on the docket is #4 Alabama (25-9, 13-5), fresh off of a dominant 25-point victory over #5 Texas Tech. Can the Crimson Tide deliver a massive March Madness upset in the Midwest region?
Michigan enters as 8.5-point favorites (-118) over Alabama. The total is set at 172.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Friday’s game between the Crimson Tide and the Wolverines.
Alabama vs. Michigan prediction, preview
No team prioritizes scoring quite like Alabama. The Crimson Tide are putting up 91.6 points per game this season, best in all of college basketball. Labaron Philon has been a standout, putting up the SEC’s second-most points per game (21.6 PPG) this season. Four other members of Nate Oats’ roster are averaging double-digit points per game. One of those names, Aden Holloway (16.8 PPG), remains out of action due to his arrest last week.
Holloway’s absence hasn’t had a significant impact on Alabama so far. However, you want your best players available when going up against a one-seed. What’s good and bad about this squad is a dependence on shooting. The Tide have recorded 53.9 three-point attempts per field goals attempted. That’s the highest mark among all Division I programs. Still, they’re connecting on a good (not great) 36.1% of all shots from beyond the arc. No other team better embodies the saying “live by the three-ball, die by the three ball.”
In the right spot, such as Sunday vs. Texas Tech, Bama can light it up from long distance. However, the odds aren’t in favor of a repeat shooting performance tonight. Michigan wields college basketball’s second-best adjusted defensive efficiency (89.9) per KenPom. One of this crew’s greatest strengths is guarding the perimeter. Opponents are shooting just 30.8% from three-point range vs. the Wolverines, 30th-lowest in the nation. St. Louis, another elite scoring attack, went 10/32 (31.3%) against the Wolverines from deep in the Round of 32.
It’s not as if Michigan’s only path towards victory is on the defensive end. These guys are more than capable of putting up buckets, as well. It all starts in the front court, where Yaxel Lendeborg continues to put up numbers. The senior has notched a team-leading 14.7 points in addition to 6.9 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. He’s joined down low by 6’9″ Morez Johnson (13.4 PPG, 7.3 REB) and 7’3″ Aday Mara (12.0 PPG, 6.9 REB). The next four leading Wolverines scorers are all guards, giving head coach Dusty May back court depth. No matter how you slice it, there are weapons all over the floor for UM.
Alabama vs. Michigan pick, best bet
The most decisive edge for either squad in this matchup comes on the glass. Michigan ranks eighth in total rebounding percentage (56.4%), while Alabama is 130th (50.8%). The Wolverines and their array of talented big men should feast in this matchup. In comparison, the Crimson Tide are almost entirely dependent on three-point shooting. That’s without Holloway, their second-best player. Keeping that in mind, it’s hard not to back the favorites this evening.
Best Bet: Michigan -8.5 (-118)
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