The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup continues on Thursday as the play-offs for a spot in this summer’s tournament commence. The winner of Ukraine vs. Sweden will take on the winner of Poland vs. Albania for a place in the World Cup.
It’s essentially a four-team bracket for one spot in the tournament. The winner of this bracket will enter Group F of the World Cup alongside the Netherlands, Japan and Tunisia.
Sweden are +135 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook for this one, with a draw available at +225. Fancy a Ukraine upset? They are +215 on the moneyline.
Sweden are -150 to advance, while Ukraine are listed at +110.
Ukraine vs. Sweden Prediction, Pick
In the FIFA World Rankings, Ukraine are ranked #30 while Sweden sit at #42.
To be quite honest, I am a little shocked at this line. I would have expected Ukraine to be the favorites here, but instead it’s Sweden.
Let’s start with Ukraine. They finished second in Group D of UEFA qualifying, finishing behind France and ahead of Iceland and Azerbaijan. They won three of their six games, drawing one and losing two. It’s no surprise that the two losses came against one of the best teams in the world, France, and the draw was away to Azerbaijan.
On the other side, Sweden’s qualifying campaign was nothing short of a disaster. They finished fourth in Group B of UEFA qualifying, trailing Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovenia. In six games, they failed to win a single match, drew two and lost four. For a team of Sweden’s historical stature, the campaign was a complete embarrassment. They are still in with a shot, however, and they have their Nations League campaign to thank for that. They were granted a spot in these play-offs as one of the four Nations League group winners who did not finish in the top two of their World Cup qualifying group. The other 12 spots of this 16 team play-off were runners-up in their qualifying group.
Sweden lost twice to Switzerland, and there’s no shame in that as a top 20 team in the world. The problem is they drew twice with Slovenia, the 57th ranked team in the world, and lost twice to Kosovo, who are ranked 79th in the rankings. The last competitive win for Sweden, excluding friendlies, was all the way back in 2024. Ukraine are the much more in form team, and I’m picking them to get to the play-off final against either Poland or Albania.
