Thursday’s Sweet 16 action begins with an SEC-Big Ten showdown. #11 Texas (21-14, 9-9) has surpassed all expectations, becoming the sixth-ever First Four team to reach the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend. Following their upset of #3 Gonzaga last Saturday, the Longhorns will now attempt to defeat #2 Purdue (29-8, 13-7). The Boilermakers are on a roll, having won six straight.
Purdue enters as 7.5-point favorites (-105) over Texas. The total is set at 147.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Thursday’s game between the Longhorns and the Boilermakers.
Texas vs. Purdue prediction, preview
This Longhorns run, while surprising, shouldn’t come as a massive shock. Texas has two major factors going in its favor: star power and an experienced head coach in Sean Miller. The latter is no stranger to the big dance, having reached the Sweet 16 eight times prior to this season. As for this roster, UT wields the nation’s 15th-best offense per KenPom. However, unlike most other elite scoring attacks, this squad doesn’t stretch the floor. Texas ranks 257th in the nation with 35.5 three-point attempts per field goals attempted.
So how do the Longhorns manage to put up points? By getting to the charity stripe. Miller’s crew is averaging 44.7 free-throw attempts per field goals attempted. That’s the seventh-best mark in all of college basketball. This offense revolves around the front court, led by junior Dailyn Swain. The power forward is putting up a team-leading 17.4 points per game. He’s joined by center Matas Vokietaitis, a double-double machine. The Lithuanian has notched a combined 55 points and 33 rebounds over UT’s last three games. Guards Tramon Mark (13.5 PPG) and Jordan Pope (13.1 PPG) are no stranger to big moments, either.
With all that being said, Texas’ defense isn’t anything to write home about. Notably, this group struggles mightily to generate turnovers. That’s not ideal against most opponents, let alone an unflappable Purdue back court. Braden Smith might be the nation’s best point guard; he’s second in the Big Ten with 9.0 assists per game. He’s joined by fellow guard Fletcher Loyer, an elite shooter (43.3% 3PT). Inside the paint, Trey Kaufman-Renn has been a stat-stuffing monster (14.1 PPG, 8.5 REB). Those three, along with several quality role players, have delivered the sport’s highest-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency (132.0).
Much like Texas, the Boilermakers aren’t the most reliable on defense. With that being said, they’ve been playing well on that end of the floor as of late. The team has held each of its last five opponents to 72 points or fewer. That includes matchups with fellow NCAA Tournament foes Michigan, Nebraska, and UCLA. Purdue can struggle to defend the perimeter, but that might not matter against UT’s questionable shooting. As previously mentioned, the Longhorns get to the line often. However, the Boilermakers rank seventh in FTA/FGA allowed to opponents (25.2). In that regard, something has to give tonight.
Texas vs. Purdue pick, best bet
Size and reliance on paint points has made Texas a relatively safe underdog for bettors in March. Still, a mediocre defense can only take you so far against college basketball’s best. Purdue has been containing some of the nation’s elite offenses for nearly two weeks. It helps that the Boilermakers make a strong effort to avoid silly fouls. The favorites have all the pieces necessary to pull away late on Thursday.
Best Bet: Purdue -7.5 (-105)
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