Arguably the biggest beneficiary of the FIFA World Cup’s expansion from 32 to 48 teams prior to the 2026 edition was the Oceanian Football Confederation; instead of receiving only an Intercontinental Playoffs spot, the confederation now receives both an automatic qualifier and an Intercontinental Playoffs bid.
The extra spot means New Caledonia, which has never participated in a World Cup, is now just 180 minutes away from making its debut. Les Cagous will play in the Intercontinental Playoffs tonight at 11 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) in Guadalajara, Mexico against Jamaica. The winner will face DR Congo next Tuesday at the same venue, with the winner advancing to Group K, which already includes Portugal, Colombia, and Uzbekistan.
The Reggae Boyz are -1800 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and New Caledonia is +2800. There are +1200 odds that the tie will require penalties.
New Caledonia vs. Jamaica prediction, pick
Les Cagous enjoyed pretty smooth sailing in OFC qualifications, winning two of three games in their second-round group and drawing once before beating fellow French dependency Tahiti 3-0 to advance to the final against New Zealand. They managed to hold the match scoreless for 60 minutes before conceding three late. Similarly, Jamaica started out strong in CONCACAF’s qualification process, winning each of its second-round matches and entering the final day of third-round qualifying with a chance of securing one of the confederation’s three automatic spots, but a 0-0 draw to Curaçao ultimately did the Reggae Boyz in.
New Caledonia is the clear underdog, as it’s by far the lowest-ranked nation in the six-team Intercontinental Playoffs field. Les Cagous are just 150th in the world, predominantly consist of amateur players, and their squad has a combined market value of just 5.2 million Euros. To be fair, they do have a new attacking threat in Angelo Fulgini, an Al-Taawoun attacking midfielder who has started 22 times and had previously played for France’s youth national team. He didn’t participate with the national team in qualifying, but Joseph Athale and Georges Gope-Fenepej each found the back of the net thrice during their five qualifying games. New Caledonia scored plenty, netting more than any team besides New Zealand, but its defense was problematic, conceding two against Solomon Islands. Les Cagous also failed to keep a clean sheet against either Papua New Guinea (World No. 170) and Fiji (World No. 155).
Jamaica will be a tough test. While the Reggae Boyz disappointed during qualifying and underwent a managerial change, they’re still ranked 70th in the world and have a squad worth more than 10 times as much. 10 different players found the back of the net in CONCACAF qualifying, and none of them was Aston Villa midfielder Leon Bailey, on paper Jamaica’s most talented player. All in all, the Reggae Boyz were strong on both sides of the ball, scoring the seventh-most goals and allowing the second-fewest. Like New Caledonia, their defense wasn’t always clean, as they allowed two goals to Curaçao and two to Dominica (albeit without first-choice goalkeeper Andre Blake), but it’s hard to imagine them struggling too much against Les Cagous. Blake has had a poor season for the Philadelphia Union, saving just 59.1% of his possible opportunities, but he’s still an experienced shot-stopper with three MLS titles and a Gold Cup final to his name, and he’s historically stepped up for his nation.
It’s hard to predict exactly how this one will play out, given that each team has played just two friendlies since its World Cup qualification campaign ended. Each won both of its friendlies, with Jamaica pipping Grenada 1-0 and Martinique 2-0 and New Caledonia beating Gibraltar 2-0 and French fifth division side USSA Vertou 3-1, but neither played high-level competition. It’s hard to look at a 2-0 win against the World No. 202 and have any confidence in Les Cagous’ attack. The Reggae Boyz will score three before deciding that they don’t need a fourth.
