The NCAA Tournament continues on Thursday with the Third Round. One of the best ways to get in on the action this March is with a survivor pool.
The $1 Million Men’s College Basketball Tournament Survivor pool is live on DraftKings. You can join plenty of other pools for the tournament on DraftKings as well.
Read my piece on NCAA Tournament survivor pool strategy here.
Here are my best picks and teams to avoid for the Third Round.
NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Third Round Strategy
As we enter the Third Round of the NCAA Tournament, anyone who has made it this far in their survivor pools has already done a great job. However, this is the round where pools are won. While fewer upsets in the first two rounds made it easier to survive to this point, it also sets up more close matchups in this round. Being able to pick a winner for each day of the Third Round, while still having strong teams left for the Fourth Round, is the hardest part of this tournament. The motto is always “survive and advance,” but ensure you have a No. 1 seed in your back pocket for the next round, especially one with a favorable matchup on the horizon.
Third Round Survivor Best Pick for Thursday 3/26
Purdue over Texas
This is going to be the chalk pick for Thursday’s games, but for good reason. Texas had a great run from being one of the last teams in the field to pulling off upsets over BYU and Gonzaga. However, this matchup against Purdue is another level. BYU was a very favorable matchup for Texas because BYU struggles defensively. Gonzaga is much better defensively, but can go on long stretches without scoring. Purdue, meanwhile, is excellent on both ends of the floor. The Boilermakers rank 33rd in the nation in defensive rating, a very solid mark. They are also the best offensive team in the country, ranking first in offensive rating. Texas can score in bunches, but Purdue will be prepared after a few days off to slow them down. Even if this turns into a high-scoring game, Purdue is the most efficient offense in the country and can win in multiple ways.
From a strategy standpoint, there is no point in saving Purdue for the next round. The Boilermakers will most likely have to face Arizona in the next round, which is arguably the best team in the tournament.
Third Round Survivor Best Pick for Friday 3/27
Duke over St. John’s
For Friday’s games, the choice is really between the two No. 1 seeds, Duke and Michigan. However, I’m leaning toward Duke because Michigan is the team I’d rather have in the next round. Michigan’s matchup against Alabama is a bit more favorable than Duke’s matchup against St. John’s on paper. However, Alabama is a scary team to pick as a favorite and a scary team to fade as an underdog. That is because of their frantic style of play and high volume of three-pointers. If Alabama is cold from beyond the arc, it could lose by 20 to Michigan. However, if the Tide get hot, they have a chance to pull off the upset. If Michigan does get the win, it could be a good pick in the next round.
Duke is elated to have its starting center back for this game. St. John’s is a tough, physical team that wants to play inside. That would be a major concern for Duke if Patrick Ngongba II remained out. However, this game is completely different with the 6’11, 250-pound center patrolling the paint for Duke. Duke was the best defensive team in the nation this season, with Ngongba playing a huge role in that. Duke should make it really hard for the Red Storm to put points on the board and come out of this tough game with a win.
Third Round Survivor Favorites to Avoid
Arizona over Arkansas
Arizona was my pick to win the national title. However, this could potentially be the toughest game it has to play in the entire tournament. Arkansas’ star freshman guard, Darius Acuff Jr., has taken the tournament by storm. He had a fantastic season for the Razorbacks and was named a First-Team All-American. He has proven his excellence again in the tournament, scoring 24 points against Hawaii in the first round and 36 points in the second round against High Point. Acuff is in the Kemba Walker category of players who have carried teams through this tournament to national titles. Arkansas is a team with a lot of momentum that I would not want to get in the way of in this round.
